I’ve Moved!

November 20, 2008

So I’m sure that most people have noticed that the site has been offline for a few days. There’s a reason for that, which I will get to shortly. But first, let me just say this:

I AM NO LONGER BLOGGING HERE

In fact, I am blogging at a new site I have just finished setting up: kennethhynek.net. A full explanation for the reasons behind the move can be found here.

That said, this is not the end of . My wife has expressed interest in taking over blogging at this domain, and I am working to make sure that she gets set up here as soon as possible.

Also, my profound apologies for the modification to the site face; the move was not as seamless as I would have hoped, and many of the image files for this theme, and in the gallery, were corrupted during the course of their evacuation from my previous web host’s servers. Until such time as I have repaired them, I’ve put a clean-looking template in place of the previous one.

Update: for the purposes of further traffic shaping, new posts from kennethhynek.net will be excerpted below. Full articles can be read at the new blog.

Reader Mail: Links

March 20, 2008

Ed Darrell just can’t get enough, I guess. Not satisfied with my most recent response to him, he returns to this “frustrating”, “not the place to carry on a discussion” blog to ask for more information.

Ed claims that there are a thousand studies that confirm Carson’s claims. Personally, I don’t see them — certainly Ed doesn’t link to all of them (in fact, between the two incredibly lengthy articles of his that I have now linked to, he links to very few studies indeed).

But then, you can’t find a single link to any study which contradicts anything Carson wrote. You criticize me for pointing to the studies that do exist, while Milloy functions on misrepresentation, outright falsehood, and non-existent studies.

I challenge you again: Find a study that says eagles were not harmed by DDT. Don’t cite a third-hand, hearsay piece from Milloy: Cite the study.

Go to Discovery Magazine and looke at the number of studies they cite. Milloy doesn’t offer numbers of studies, only misquotes from a few — Discover counted those that corroborated Carson’s work. 1,000 to how many? Count ‘em, if you can find ‘em.

When your side is down 1,000 to one, it’s an expected tactic for you to call me a liar. Shame on you.

I’m not actually threatened by the prospect of being “down” a thousand to one, so long as the one that I do have is correct. It’s like John da Fiesole always asks: but is it true? So long as I have one that’s true, the other side is welcome to their thousand.

For example, the reason I’m calling Ed a liar is because I caught him in a lie by demonstrating that a statement which he made is false. Predictably, in keeping with the general modus operandi of a biased activist, Ed has not yet retracted his erroneous statement — a crime he accuses of being guilty of, mind — but has instead persisted in saying that nothing out there exists which challenges ’s writings.

Ed insists I cite the study. Okay, fine, I can cite the study. But Milloy cites studies as well, and Ed doesn’t accept those — some he dismisses as non-existent, others he dismisses as invalid for a host of nebulous reasons. Perhaps, dishonestly, Ed only accepts as valid those studies which agree with his biases? That would certainly be typical of a biased activist, wouldn’t it, O Reader?

But to humour his demands one more time, here’s a few things I was able to cobble together in the 20 or so minutes I had left in the day when this latest bit of correspondence from Ed arrived in my mailbox. Just to be clear: every article or study I link to here, I found online within twenty minutes. Given a day, or a week, and both the and a comprehensive database of old articles on microfiche, how many other gems might I find?

Remember also Ed’s claim that nothing has been published which refutes Carson’s claims. All I need is one.

First, in an analysis of DDT and its derivatives, the found that “ and its derivatives and have moderate to low toxicity to birds when given as an acute oral dose or in the diet.” Moreover, it was found that there “is no obvious pattern of relative toxicity between the three compounds. In some species it is DDT that is the most toxic, while in other species it is TDE.” (and remember: what toxicity exists is rated as “moderate to low”) The study does not specifically address eagles, however, noting that in the wild, “the most severely affected species of birds are raptors at the top of food chains. There is little direct laboratory data on toxicity to these birds.”

That should begin to paint us an interesting picture, O Reader, one which I will come back to later. There is “little laboratory data” on the toxicity of DDT and its byproducts to high-level predatory birds like eagles. And yet some people assert with terrifying certainty (when is ever certain?) that DDT is the causitive factor in the ’s near brush with extinction.

The study goes on to note that whether or not DDT exposure affected hatchability of eggs (particularly due to eggshell thinning) varied greatly between bird species — some were succeptible to it, some were not. Care must be taken in looking at the results, however, because some of the test birds were also fed a low-calcium diet, which would also negatively impact eggshell thickness. This was specifically being tested for, as earlier studies (most notably by of the , in 1969) had exposed the test birds not only to DDT or one of its derivatives, but had also fed them a low-calcium diet.

The reduction of calcium in the diet of test birds was found to be a significant factor in the outcome of the studies (which shouldn’t come as a surprise): “In contrast to the earlier studies, there was no effect of either DDT or DDE on shell thickness or egg weight when dietary calcium was higher. There was an increased incidence of egg breakage in birds fed DDT and DDE, but this was less pronounced than with the low calcium diets.”

Moreover, “Robson et al. (1976) studied the effects of DDE and DDT fed to Japanese quail in two different diets containing adequate or low calcium. DDT was fed at 100 mg/kg diet, whereas DDE was given at 0, 199, or 300 mg/kg diet, and the two calcium levels were 0.5% and 3%.

DDE at 300 mg/kg was detrimental to adult body weight, fertility, and survivability. There was no effect of either DDT or of DDE at up to 100 mg/kg diet on adult body weight, food consumption, egg production, egg weight, fertility, hatchability, cracking of eggs, or eggshell thickness. Low dietary calcium had the effect of reducing the thickness of eggshells, increasing the incidence of cracked shells and decreasing egg production and hatchability.” In other words, DDT and its derivatives (DDE is the most common — it is formed when DDT sheds a hydrogen cholride molecule) did not have at all the same effect on eggshell thickness in test birds as it was found to have in previous studies, because those studies had also involved feeding the birds a calcim-deficient diet, something they probably wouldn’t have been exposed to as frequently in the wild.

It’s not just the Bitman study that is thrown into doubt, either — researchers from the University of Alberta, writing to , also question the findings of Wiemeyer and Porter’s work with American kestrels, pointing out that in the Wiemeyeer/Porter study, it was the control group of birds who had the thinnest eggshells. This was written in response to an article in Nature Magazine by Blus, Gish, Belisle and Prouty in 1972. The U of A researchers, in their letter, note that to “support their conclusions, the authors [Blus, Gish, Belisle and Prouty] state that concentrations of residues in the female determine shell thickness, a claim which is unreferenced, largely hypothetical, and without consideration of contradictory experimental evidence.”

Now, when one does even as little as a search for DDT and eagles, one finds a lot of different articles alleging that there is a connection between DDT usage and the decline in the eagle population. Keeping in mind that there isn’t that much laboratory data available on high-end predatory raptors, most of these studies and articles tend to cite earlier studies, such as those by Bitman or Wiemeyer and Porter, in support of their conclusions. Certainly, that was the case in the Nature Magazine article mentioned above (Nature, 235, 376 (1972)). In that specific case, it was shown, quickly and rather easily, that the authors of the article not only incorrectly interpreted the evidence that they considered, but also that they ignored evidence which contradicted their conclusions.

Ed asserts that there are a thousand studies done. I see a number of studies, to be sure, but I also see a number of articles drawing upon the same pool of studies. Perhaps I’m in error to suspect this, but if we assume that Ed’s hyperbolic claim of a thousand studies is actually an accurate number, how many of those studies are unique inquiries, and how many are follow-up articles in scientific publications which draw upon the same pool of earlier research data? And how many of those ignored contrary evidence? Was it just the writers at Nature, or were some of the writers at, say, Discovery also guilty of sweeping under the rug later studies which contradicted some of their conclusions?

As recently as 2003, - the , published by the , found that their revisiting of the DDE/eggshell thickness issue in American condors “revealed major problems in using the thickness or DDE content of shell fragments from eggs of unknown size to study contamination problems.” They urged that “future studies of the effects of DDE on shell thinning in any species be limited to whole-egg samples when possible. DDE analyses of shell fragments should be regarded as inherently suspect, unless they are run immediately after eggs are fragmented, and direct shell thickness measurements should always be interpreted in the light of egg-size effects on thickness. Studies in which egg size is neglected can miss potentially important effects of egg size on shell thickness and DDE on egg size.

The failure of many previous avian DDE studies to investigate potential DDE effects on egg size or egg-size effects on thinning does not necessarily invalidate any of these studies, especially if the species involved suffered no changes in egg size during periods of contamination. However, results with the California Condor suggest that re-analyses taking egg-size information into account might modify conclusions in some cases.”

Now, admittedly, none of these articles addresses bald eagles directly — but that is because there is very little lab data available on eagles to begin with. What the studies I have linked to do is point to a trend that calls into question earlier studies on the relationship between DDT or one of its derivatives and eggshell thickness in different bird species, especially in light of the suspect nature (see the IBIS article, above) of studies of eggshell thickness done on eggshell fragments that were not collected and analyzed at or very near the moment of fragmentation.

In , there is a technique that shooters sometimes use which is called bracketing. Bracketing can mean many things, but in essence distills down to this: one aspect of the camera’s operation or image capture parameters is varied over a series of shots, while the subject of the picture is held constant. For example, let us say that one is taking a picture of someone who is backlit by a strong light source. One could use bracketing to take a series of pictures, varying the exposure each time, in order to try and capture an image that strikes a balance between overexposing the background and underexposing the subject in the foreground. Bracketing is used, in essence, to extract an optimal, if not a maximum, level of detail from a scene, especially a scene in which harsh conditions concerning dynamic range are present.

What does this have to do with eagles?

Science News, in 1998, noted that “[l]ong before DDT was a glimmer in a farmer’s eye, some other menace, as yet unknown, was sapping the strength of eggshells.” This could possibly have been a result of acidification as a result of early industrialization, but at any rate it was found that a thinning trend in the eggshell thickness of various bird species could be traced back as far as 1850, predating DDT by many decades (the same study noted that some bird species have “withstood eggshell declines of up to 15 percent”). The Reader will have to pardon the rather “dated” look of the Science News article archives — evidently, the changeover in format that has been done to their main site has not yet been bubbled down to all the old content.

Moreover, the , in their Facts Versus Fears publication (Edition 3, June 1998 — an extract of the article can be found here) noted that “[i]n 1968 two researchers, Drs. and , reported that high concentrations of DDT were found in the eggs of wild raptor populations. The two concluded that increased eggshell fragility in s, bald eagles, and s was due to DDT exposure. Dr. Joel Bitman and associates at the U.S. Department of Agriculture likewise determined that Japanese quail fed DDT produced eggs with thinner shells and lower calcium content.

In actuality, however, declines in bird populations either had occurred before DDT was present or had occured years after DDT’s use. A comparison of the annual Audubon Christmas Bird Counts between 1941 (pre-DDT) and 1960 (after DDT’s use had waned) reveals that at least 26 different kinds of birds became more numerous during those decades, the period of greatest DDT usage. The Audubon counts document an overall increase in birds seen per observer from 1941 to 1960, and statistical analyses of the Audubon data confirm the perceived increases. For example, only 197 bald eagles were documented in 1941; the number had increased to 891 in 1960.

At , , teams of ornithologists made daily counts of migrating raptors for over 40 years. The counts — published annually by the Hawk Mountain Sanctuary Association — reveal great increases in most kinds of hawks during the DDT years. The osprey counts increased as follows: in 1946, 191; in 1956, 288; in 1967, 457; and in 1972, 630.13 In 1942 Dr. Joseph Hickey — who in 1968 would blame DDT for bird population decline — reported that 70 per-cent of the eastern osprey population had been killed by pole traps around fish hatcheries. That same year, before DDT came into use, Hickey noted a decline in the population of peregrine falcons.

Other observers also documented that the great peregrine decline in the eastern United States occurred long before any DDT was present in the environment. In peregrines were observed to be “reproducing normally” in the 1960s even though their tissues contained 30 times more DDT than did the tissues of the midwestern peregrines allegedly being extirpated by the chemical.18 And in Great , in 1969, a three-year government study noted that the decline of peregrine falcons in Britain had ended in 1966 even though DDT levels were as abundant as ever. The British study concluded that “There is no close correlation between the decline in population of predatory birds, particularly the peregrine falcon and the sparrow hawk, and the use of DDT.

In addition, later research refuted the original studies that had pointed to DDT as a cause for eggshell thinning. After reassessing their findings using more modern methodology, Drs. Hickey and Anderson admitted that the egg extracts they had studied contained little or no DDT and said they were now pursuing s, chemicals used as capacitor insulators, as the culprit.”

This is what I’m getting at, O Reader, when I talk about bracketing — looking at the data outside a single frame of reference. The fact is, eggshell thicknesses were already in decline by the time DDT usage became widespread, and that decline continued in some species well past the time when DDT began to fall out of use (the early 1960s), and well past the time when it was banned. To a truly critical mind, that detail, plus the fact that there is now grounds for doubt about the conclusions of many of the studies done demonstrating a direct correlation between DDT concentration and the welfare of various bird species, should be cause enough for a re-evaluation of whether or not the doom prophecies of were really all that correct in the first place.

Yes, nothing I have cited pertains directly to eagles…but given the studies that I have dug up, we must now diverge our thinking. Either eagles were uniquely succeptible to DDT and its derivatives, and were particularly vulnerable to it, or else they — like many other bird species — were already under pressure from a variety of other environmental factors at the same time. One cannot help but note that around the same time that DDT was falling out of use and heading toward its eventual banning, both automobiles and various industries were being subjected to steadily more strict environmental regulations, and were installing better emission control systems. How can the effects of those changes be measured separately from any perceived changes brought on by a reduction or cessation of DDT usage if, as may well be possible, acidification due to industrial pollution also had a detrimental effect on eggshell thickness?

And finally, there is one other consideration. “In (now ) DDT spraying had reduced cases from 2.8 million in 1948 to 17 in 1963. After spraying was stopped in 1964, malaria cases began to rise again and reached 2.5 million in 1969. The same pattern was repeated in many other tropical — and usually impoverished — regions of the world. In the prevalence of malaria among the populace dropped from 70 percent in 1958 to 5 percent in 1964. By 1984 it was back up to between 50 and 60 percent. The chief malaria expert for the U.S. Agency for International Development said that malaria would have been 98 percent eradicated had DDT continued to be used.

In addition, from 1960 to 1974 screened about 2,000 compounds for use as antimalarial insecticides. Only 30 were judged promising enough to warrant field trials. WHO found that none of those compounds had the persistence of DDT or was as safe as DDT. (Insecticides such as and , which are much more toxic than DDT, were used instead.) And—a very important factor for malaria control in less developed countries—all of the substitutes were considerably more expensive than DDT.”

Nearly three million people die every year (another of Ed’s lies was to claim that only 1 million people die each year from this disease — he has yet to retract that statement as well) from malaria. Perhaps it is callous of me to say so, but for some reason, I cannot bring myself — in the face of statistics that basically mean one malarial death every thirty seconds — to care more about eight hundred observed eagles as opposed to merely three hundred.

Ed mentions shame. Yes, it would be a shame if the bald eagle went extinct — but it’s a bigger shame that 2.7 million people die every year from a disease that was on the road to eradication at one point.

Ed will just have to forgive me if I don’t get all misty over the plight of a bird that isn’t even a food source for humans.

It took Ed Darrell a good half-dozen emails in which he has called a liar to actually provide a concrete example within a piece of correspondence. The drought has now ended, however, and an example has been given.

Here, try this one; Milloy says:

6. “To only a few chemicals does man owe as great a debt as to DDT… In little more than two decades, DDT has prevented 500 million human deaths, due to malaria, that otherwise would have been inevitable.”

[National Academy of Sciences, Committee on Research in the Life Sciences of the Committee on Science and Public Policy. 1970. The Life Sciences; Recent Progress and Application to Human Affairs; The World of Biological Research; Requirements for the Future.]

Now, if you know anything about mathematics, that should get your hackles up. 500 million lives saved? Malaria kills about a million people a year by most estimates — that would be 500 years of deaths. It’s 250 years of deaths if we go for a doubling the usual death rate. Of course, DDT has been used for only 50 years. So Milloy is arguing that 10 million people a year die from malaria.

Obviously that figure is wrong. YOu can see it. Milloy knows it, too (since I sent him the math). But of course, he might rely on the NAS as a source — which he would, I’m sure, if he were an honorable man who gave a whit about the honor of a 14-year old Boy Scout — but
he doesn’t.

The publication is available on line. Sure enough, NAS goofed.

But you need to read the entire publication. Milloy presents it as the NAS agreeing with his view that Carson was in error. NAS takes the opposite position. They argue that Carson is right, and that she was right to urge more research to find a replacement for DDT, since,
in their estimation DDT use provided some value.

You can read my criticism, with citations, here: http://timpanogos.wordpress.com/2007/08/09/fisking-junk-
sciences-campaign-against-ddt-point-6/

NAS calls DDT “the poster child” of chemcials that are hazardous.

Is that Milloy’s point?

All one needs to do is pay atetntion to the headlines. Milloy ignores them. I ask that you be more honest than Milloy. He’s a lost cause in my book.

President Kennedy’s Council of Science Advisors reveiwed Carson’s findings, and they recommended to Kennedy that he act sooner rather than waiting as Carson had proposed, because the chemicals including DDT were more dangerous than Carson had alleged.

Why doesn’t Milloy mention that? I don’t know.

But I think you are duty bound to act more honorably than Milloy. Why don’t you mention it? Why don’t you mention the 1,000 studies that verify Carson’s claims, and refute Milloy’s?

I’ve given you the pointers. Check the citations — not just to see if they exist, but to see if they verify what Milloy says. Lazy academics is equal to academic fraud in this case. Don’t be lazy about it.

First, let’s be clear — malarial death rates are on the order of approximately 2.7 million a year, not the 1 million Ed notes above. Of course, that is still far short of the 10 million a year that would be necessary to achieve the 500 million saved that the NAS erroneously quoted.

And yes, Milloy does quote the NAS report as a source, and so makes mention of the 500 million. Within that limited scope, Milloy is indeed incorrect, but only insofar as he quoted another source that was incorrect. And the scope of the error is likewise narrow; the 500 million figure could be dismissed as hyperbole, and the fact that it is not an accurate number in no way argues against what would seem to be the concrete fact that DDT usage, in its day, did prevent millions of malaria-related deaths.

And here we have to ask, I think, what ’s true intent in posting the quotation from the study was; was he intending to hold up the 500 million number as accurate, or was he merely citing one more study which asserted that yes, DDT usage in an anti-malarial role saves many lives? I’m a charitable guy; I tend to believe that the latter possibility is Milloy’s probable rationale.

Ed does correctly point out that the ultimately did side with ’s conclusions about a rollback in DDT usage, and I’ve said before that even I’m not in favour of willy-nilly use the stuff. But here’s an interesting question: can people, even when they start out well, still get things wrong? argues in favour of the theory of evolution, and I think he does very well at it; strictly on the science, I agree with him. But Richard Dawkins ultimately draws out of that otherwise very excellent science a conclusion that is just a delusion, and that organized is a form of child abuse. Is he still right, despite the fact that his science is impeccable?

No, of course he is not. So what I wonder is this: the NAS acknowledged that DDT played a valuable role in combatting malaria, and that it was because DDT was so damnably effective at killing or driving away s that millions of malarial deaths were being prevented world-wide thanks to its use. But in the end, they sided with Rachel Carson and argued in favour of diminishing the use of DDT. Could they too have made the transition from right-minded to wrong-minded somewhere? It’s certainly possible, isn’t it?

And maybe Steven Milloy had no other intent in quoting the NAS source than to suggest exactly that. Or maybe he had very malicious reasons. Ed certainly attributes malice to Milloy’s actions. But then, Ed is himself biased.

The fact is, the NAS is, I don’t think, correct in calling DDT the “poster child” of hazardous chemicals, first and foremost because that sort of statement is rhetorical, not academic. Certainly, it is not a scientific statement. And as some of the articles of Milloy’s that I found sources for note, the claim that DDT is über-harmful seems more and more questionable, as several studies have now demonstrated no identifiable connection between DDT concentration in the body and rates of cancer development.

Ed claims that there are a thousand studies that confirm Carson’s claims. Personally, I don’t see them — certainly Ed doesn’t link to all of them (in fact, between the two incredibly lengthy articles of his that I have now linked to, he links to very few studies indeed). I’ve found, within half an hour, eight studies that suggest that DDT isn’t as harmful, to humans at least, as was previously thought. Given more time, is it possible that I might find a hundred such articles? Or a thousand?

Do I need to find more than one article, as long as the article I find is right?

I notice that Ed has dropped his unfair accusation that I edit emails (probably in the face of the threat of being exposed as a fraud yet again — and yet I am the passive-aggressive one?), and I’m going to admit to making one edit to the above message from him; I changed none of the spelling, but I did turn the provided URL for his blog post into a proper hyperlink. That required adding an ‘a’ tag; none of Ed’s original text has been deleted.

I notice that Ed’s article is supposed to be one in a series of entries fisking the DDT FAQ at Junk Science. I further notice that Ed hasn’t really addressed all that many of the points made in said FAQ, despite his stated goal of doing so, and despite the fact that it’s been half a year since he posted the article he provides a link to (above). What should this tell us, O Reader? Could it possibly be that Ed is being dishonest again and not admitting that some of Milloy’s points cannot be fisked, at least not by Ed Darrell?

So at this point, I turn it over to the reader. There’s been a fair bit of discussion on this blog about DDT over the last few days. We’re all intelligent people here; we can make our own decisions and draw our own conclusions.

Ed Darrell, who I thought had dismissed this blog as “not the place to carry on a discussion,” returns to…ah…carry on the discussion.

No, not just looking to see whether the citation goes anywhere - you really are not paying attention — check the citations to see that they verify the point Milloy is trying to make.

For example, he argues that eagles were never harmed frmo DDT. Discover Magazine noted last November that there are more than 1200 studies on the issue, all verifying Carson’s side of the story.

Are there citations in Milloy’s piece? Yes. Do any of them check out? No.

You could look at my blog to see.

Your passive-aggressive refusal to engage the material is most irritating.

I’m not engaging the material, O Reader, as much as I am engaging Ed Darrell who, I have noted, has been caught in a lie. Yes, there are studies — which he links to and discusses in some detail — that support ’s thesis. There are also studies, which folks like have remarked upon, that argue against it. Some studies show that is a carcinogen in animals; other studies show no correlation between DDT concentration and cancer development in humans.

In truth, I wasn’t just looking to see if a citation was “going anywhere,” nor was I necessarily looking to see if the point Milloy was making by citing the article was valid (in that the content of the article cited matched the point being made, although that is in fact what I found anyhow). I was looking to catch Ed in a lie, and did just that.

And just for reference, Ed has just told another lie — he states, above, that none of Milloy’s citations check out. And yet I found eight citations from Milloy that do check out; not only are they legitimate sources, from reasonably well-known publications, but they actually support Milloy’s assertions (for example: that there appears to be no correlation between DDT concentration in human beings and the onset of various cancers).

Steven Milloy may still be a liar as well; I don’t really know (although I’ve no doubt that Milloy has told a lie — he is human, after all, and we’re all sinners). Ed Darrell would seem to make a convincing case, but I cannot trust that Ed himself is unbiased; in fact, he seems, to me, to be heavily biased against DDT and those who advocate for its use. Since in the article of his that I link to, he dismisses one DDT advocate as a corporate stooge, it would be fair turnabout to dismiss Ed himself as an activist.

Interestingly, for all his complaining about citations, Ed himself sees no need to provide links to articles and studies when attempting to refute Milloy’s claims about, say, bald eagles and peregrine falcons. He quotes Milloy’s remarks on the matter, all of which are accompanied by citations in the online DDT FAQ that Milloy maintains, and then follows up the quotation by saying, in essence, “actually, it was like this.” Which is all well and good…but it’s rather disappointing to see that even the venerable Ed Darrell isn’t providing sources for his statements.

In other words, reading his article and stacking it against Milloy’s collected notes on the same issue, I’m left wondering: why should I be convinced by Ed’s unsourced statements rather than Milloy’s sourced statements? It’s a rather bold (read: stupid) move to make to accuse another person of academic fraud and suggest that the pudding with the proof in it is an article that turns out to have even fewer sources and citations than are present in the article being dismissed as fraudulent. Basically, having read both Ed’s article and Milloy’s article, I’m more inclined to believe that the bald eagle population was already in decline prior to the widespread use of DDT, because while I might have to go digging through microfiche to find the source for Milloy’s claim, I’ve got a better chance of finding Milloy’s source than I do Ed’s, since Ed didn’t even link to, or otherwise provide, a source.

And yet he has the temerity to accuse someone else of dishonest academic practices. Interesting. One would think a genuinely unbiased person would be more…cautious. So perhaps I will dismiss Ed as an activist after all — the tactics he employs would seem consistent with the tactics of others of that designation.

It’s a pity that Ed thinks me passive-aggressive, just as surely as it’s a pity that I think him a liar. But notice the shift that has happened, O Reader — faced with someone who will not simply cave in and accept his odd barrage of facts and rhetoric, Ed — as is often the case with far too many of a biased, activist bent — has shifted his tactics to include slander and name-calling.

That makes me doubt the veracity of his statements all the more, in addition to the doubt I already feel as a result of having caught him in a lie. And yet I must wonder at one thing: if all I am to him is a source of frustration, why does he continue to return? Who, I wonder, is really passive-aggressive here?

Reader Mail: DDT

March 18, 2008

What do you do, O Reader, when the discussion just isn’t going your way? Some people bow out gracefully, others concede a point or two, and others try and shift their angle of attack. Apparently, however, if you’re Ed Darrell, you abandon all pretense of rational discussion and fling a little mud.

Your nearly impossible to read comments box, your not posting remarks unedited by you, and your intransigence in repeatedly posting “citations”from the avoiwed liar suggest this is not the place to carry on a discussion.

I had hoped you’d bother to read what I wrote, and follow my links, after I followed yours and was so sorely disappinted.

Milloy is a liar. You obviously have never bothered to try to track down his citations — they can’t be tracked. Those aren’t citations. They are primates flinging feces.

Alas.

If anyone has a question as to whether or not I post remarks unedited by me, I’ll be more than happy to provide the original emails that arrived in my inbox. I sometimes — very occasionally — correct spelling mistakes in what arrives, but only if the error is egregious and would serve only to embarrass the sender. But apart from those rare instances, what I display for the Reader in these postings is the unedited text of the original message that I receive. The only parts of the message which get redacted are the sender’s email address, IP address, and ISP information.

And as I say, I have backup copies of all the original emails to prove that with, which I can easily display upon request.

As to the complaint about the contact form being a bit hard to read — well, it’s not hard for me to read, and nobody else has yet complained. But the colour palette is a bit narrow, and for what it’s worth I’ve tracked down the relevant bits of and made a few modifications — textarea and input backgrounds are now darker, and the text is the same gold colour as the hyperlinks.

There, that sets aside Ed’s form criticisms. Now, let’s look again at a more serious charge that he makes.

Just for fun, I went through the list of DDT factoids at Junk Science to see how easy it would be to verify some of the citations. Selecting citations at random, I tried to cross-reference them against Internet-available sources. Some of the older citations, I would have had to visit a library with a comprehensive database of old journals to obtain (and my ability to access the University of Alberta’s online journal services have been revoked due to my no longer being a student of that institution).

Others, however, were more easily tracked down. Here’s a handful of examples from the list of references that could be demonstrated as being accurate citations from works published in medical or scientific journals.

Now, all I’m doing by listing these here is demonstrating that it is Ed, currently, who can be shown conclusively to be a liar. Whether Steven Milloy is a liar or not is still up for discussion — certainly, Ed is convinced that Milloy is a liar of epic proportions, while I remain agnostic on the matter. But the above list demonstrates, conclusively, that Ed’s earlier statements (i.e. that no serious scientific publications have carried articles disputing ’s theories or the conclusions published in her book , and that Milloy’s citations can’t be tracked) are falsehoods.

To be clear: based on the above, it can be said now that Ed Darrel has been conclusively demonstrated to be a liar.

I have read a sampling of content at Ed’s site, and admittedly do enjoy some of his content (his commentary on Galileo — and the generally good relationship between and — is very reasonable, for example). And I would even go so far as to charitably suggest that he makes a convincing case for a multi-vectored solution to the problem of malaria; his advocacy for s is, I think, important (even if mosquito nets are an incomplete solution, as anyone with sufficient backcountry camping experience should know), and both passive and active methods of preventing s from reaching humans will be necessary in eradicating from the world.

To be completely fair, I’m no advocate for rampant use of any potentially toxic substance, but I do believe in using what works to solve a problem. worked in many countries; we should still consider it a valid part of the arsenal of methods we should employ in our efforts to eradicate malaria world-wide, especially since many of the effects it supposedly has — on humans and on avian species — have since been cast into doubt*. That’s not to say that DDT is the only weapon we should use in our struggle against this disease. But neither should we disallow its use as we have — millions have died for that mistake.

* And that would be another lie Ed is guilty of — his assertion that none of Rachel Carson’s conclusions have been successfully disputed.

Reader Mail: DDT

March 17, 2008

Ed Darrell writes in yet again in response to my latest response to him. This discussion is certainly becoming rather…well, never mind. Let’s get to the letter.

I think this is a good time to revisit Ed’s tautology. As can be seen, numerous scientific studies, organizations, and publications dispute the findings of and other anti- campaigners.

Then give us the citations. That claim is simply untrue. You will not find support for that claim in science journals. In hoax science sites like “Junk Science?” Oh, sure. But that’s hoax, not real .

Check out my site where I show that Junk Science has bad data. Don’t take my word for it - but don’t insult your own intelligence and me by claiming there are scientific studies where there are none. Carson was right. My challenge to you is to show the studies — and I issued that challenge before. Restating the point is not meeting the challenge.

Perhaps Ed has a moral objection to clicking on hyperlinks that have, as a destination, sites with which he disagrees. That’s a pity, and somewhat dishonest, if it is in fact the case. One desires to be charitable and think of an alternative explanation for how Ed somehow missed that I have already provided him with the information he again requests above, but none come to mind. So let me re-iterate something which I have already said once before.

It’s a pity that Ed is so quick to dismiss and as purveyors of fiction, when in fact [their] detailed list of facts about DDT and its banning contains nearly a hundred sourced statements from a wide range of scientists and scientific organizations.

(Ed, just to be clear — click on the link above and you will find the citations you requested. You’re also welcome to go back over the previous articles in this discussion and follow any external links I’ve made in those as well.)

I should note that this is an opinion blog, not a science blog, and the writings herein are not formal works — if I want to reference something, I will occasionally make an explicit citation of its source, but more often than not I will just link to the source and be done with it. The Reader may disagree with this methodology, and that is why I encourage any Reader to do as I have done, and as Ed has done: start your own blog and are be free to enforce your own policies upon it.

Now, let’s be clear about something. Do I hold all the contents of websites like Junk Science as sacrosanct and infallible? No, of course not — science is never 100% certain, nor is it ever 100% correct. Folks like Milloy and Edwards are as apt as any other human being to make mistakes and in general be incorrect, either by accident or by malicious design. But the same could be said about other folks too, including folks like Rachel Carson, or about Ed Darrell for that matter. And whatever else Ed may think about the veracity or accuracy of the site I have linked to, the fact of the matter is that the list I have linked to above draws all its contents from published works — scientific papers, research studies, op-eds, and whatever else have you.

Ed cites my rejection of his tautology and attempts to say it is not so. He forgets that when he says that absolutely no scientists disagree with the DDT ban, all I need to prove him wrong is one person in one article. But in this case, there is much, much more than that bare minimum to draw upon.

I should also note to the Reader that in my initial response to Ed, I pointed out that of the four or five articles I linked to in the post that set him off initially, only one was to the Junk Science website (which, as I have noted, devotes itself primarily to exposing the “junk science” behind alarmism — and let us be crystal clear on just how rank is the dishonesty is in that particular arena of discourse). was another link destination, as was the ().

That’s a very tiny sampling of the width and breadth of opposition to the DDT ban and the science — not all of it honest or accurate — used to justify the ban. Milloy and Edwards’ list provides many more citations — some old, some newer — that I see no need to replicate here when the list can easily be accessed online, and has now been linked to, by myself, twice. I trust that the good Reader can, if he or she has not already done so, follow the lead and hint I am giving?

The plain fact of the matter is that yes, a number of scientists and scientific organizations do question the wisdom and reasoning behind the ban on DDT, and for good reason since, upon further examination, none of the harmful effects attributed to DDT can be demonstrated empirically. There is no correlation between eggshell thinning — in eagles and in other bird species — and DDT concentration. There is no correlation between DDT concentration and cancer rates/toxicity rates in humans and other animals. Much like modern environmentalism, opposition to DDT seems to be grounded less in rational analysis of available data — instead, it seems grounded in fearmongering and half-truths.

Ed Darrell writes in again to correct what he regards as some errors in my previous response to him. Actually, to be completely correct, he wrote in twice, once to correct me and once to correct both me and himself. I’m just going to bundle the two bits of mail into one posting, because it’s easier that way, and because the two messages are related.

Ed’s first message read thusly:

’s “” was not a scientific study or a comprehensive research paper. It was a novel, and then a fictional one.

Carson’s book was solidly based on the 20 years of experience with and more experience with other, similar chemicals. She provided 53 pages of citations to studies, papers in biology, chemistry and medical journals, and correspondence with the worlds’ greatest experts in the fields she wrote about.

There is not a single study done and published anywhere in any peer-reviewed journals that contradicts any finding Ms. Carson states. The in 1963 reported to President Kennedy that Carson was correct in all her conclusions, but that she was too optimistic about how soon and how hard the governmentt should act to reduce DDT use and control other hazardous chemicals.

How can you claim otherwise? There is not a single organization that would disagree. I see you cite industry lobbying organizations — but the facts are as I stated them.

Consequently, your premise is in error, and everything that flows from such a poisoned tree will be poisoned as well. An appropriate analogy when we talk about DDT.

We could eliminate next year in without DDT. WE can’t eliminate malaria in Africa without the other actions I cited, which Ms. Carson noted in her book in 1962.

Santayana was right: Those who do not know history are condemned to repeat it. How sad that the children of Africa must bear the burden of those mistakes.

The children of Africa are already bearing the burden of a terrible Western mistake — the full-scale banning of DDT. Malaria presently causes 2.7 million human deaths annually [Africa News, January 27, 1999] — at one point in time, the use of DDT in antimalarial campaigns was credited with preventing, through its careful application, as many as 500 million human deaths [National Academy of Sciences, Committee on Research in the Life Sciences of the Committee on Science and Public Policy, 1970].

I’d like to post Ed’s other letter first before launching into a full-length reply, but let me make one observation here. The use of tautological statements is always a risk, and I draw the good Reader’s attention to the number of times that Ed uses, above, statements of the form “there is not a single X that would disagree”

Such a statement can only be truthful if, for every instance of X, X does not in fact disagree. If even a single X can be shown to disagree, the statement is false.

As will be demonstrated presently, the statement is indeed false.

But first, Ed corrects himself slightly, after accusing me of having no basis for my statements.

On looking again, I see you pull out the junk science from Junk Science. Truth in labeling laws are not required, but don’t you think you should check some of the claims made by a group that advertises its stuff as junk?

Very little of what Milloy and Edwards allege at that site is accurate, and much of it is the fiction you wrongly accuse Rachel Carson of writing.

I’d urge you to check your sources. I have dissected several of Milloy’s claims at Millard Fillmore’s Bathtub, and I invite you to peruse those posts, at www.timpanogos.wordpress.com. Let the facts shine from under the bushel, please.

I am willing, O Reader, to grant that the tagging system I use on the site here does not always make spotting valid hyperlinks in my blog posts easy, in that a tag link and an actual hyperlink to a new article look identical (both use the ‘a’ tag, and so draw upon the same CSS style). That said, Junk Science (a site dedicated not to the promulgation and propagation of junk science, but to the exposure of various “scientific” studies and claims as junk (not surprisingly, most of their material concerns the pseudo-science of the alarmists).

It’s a pity that Ed is so quick to dismiss and as purveyors of fiction, when in fact the detailed list of facts about DDT and its banning contains nearly a hundred sourced statements from a wide range of scientists and scientific organizations.

My own links included articles from Milloy, at Real Clear Politics, of , and Dr. of the (). Each article in turn noted the findings of other groups — including the n — that discredit, in whole or in part, both the claims Rachel Carson made in Silent Spring and the wholesale banning of DDT use.

To be fair, Ed’s website makes the fair observation that other factors also contribute to a truly effective antimalarial campaign — on beds, for example. But I think the point to be made is that a comprehensive antimalarial campaign does not involve any one solution, but rather utilizes a “multi-vectored approach” to the problem. Mosquito populations have to be reduced for a generation or two — hence the need for DDT. In the meantime, s that escape the chemical have to be prevented from reaching humans — lower concentrations of DDT applied in houses and mosquito netting are both needed here.

Even when there were observed incidences of DDT resistance in mosquitos — a trend blamed more on heavier usage of DDT by cotton growers than on the strictly regulated doses administered in antimalarial campaigns, mosquitos nevertheless showed a strong avoidance behaviour in regard to areas where DDT had been applied. One need not kill a mosquito to keep it away from a human.

Ed, in his previous letter, mentioned s, which are commonly thought to have been driven to the brink of extinction by DDT poisoning (Ed calls them our “canary in the coal mine”). The facts — and it is a curious thing that Ed, so passionate as he is about “the facts”, missed these details — would appear to dictate otherwise:

  • Bald eagles were threatened with extinction as early as 1921, well before DDT usage became commonplace
  • In 1960, the Audubon Society counted a 25% increase in bald eagle observations as compared to the previous census done 19 years prior (i.e. before the widespread use of DDT)
  • Eggshell thickness and environmental DDT concentration, as was discovered by Krantz in the in 1970, simply do not correlate. There is no reason to suspect that DDT causes eggshell thinning.
  • The leading causes of bald eagle mortality were, and remain, shooting, electrocution from power lines, poisoning from mercury and lead contamination of food sources, and collisions — DDT was not found to be a factor in eagle mortality

Moreover, DDT has not been shown to have any harmful effect on humans, either. In both humans and lab animals, heavy exposure to DDT could not be correlated with increased rates of toxicity or cancer, as has been reported in numerous scientific papers, and even in carcinogenicity bioassays done by the American .

I think this is a good time to revisit Ed’s tautology. As can be seen, numerous scientific studies, organizations, and publications dispute the findings of Rachel Carson and other anti-DDT campaigners. More and more, it is being demonstrated that the banning of DDT was not justified in its day by the science done concerning its health and ecological impact. By the standards of today, there is precious little in the way of genuine scientific justification for the continuation of the DDT ban.

And even as malaria begins to make periodic reappearances in , it continues to kill nearly 3 million people a year, globally, most of them in Africa. To be completely fair, I agree with Ed on one thing — DDT alone is not the answer. But any answer that does not involve the use of DDT will be insufficient, contrary to an assertion Ed makes on his blog. The use of mosquito nets is important, but people can be exposed to mosquitos in other places than their bedrooms; years of camping in the backcountry of has taught me that much. Passive measures would be insufficient in stopping malaria world-wide. A combination of active and passive measures will be necessary.

So can we please cut the B.S. and get DDT back on the shelves, already?