Time Immortal

So I’m sure that most people have noticed that the site has been offline for a few days. There’s a reason for that, which I will get to shortly. But first, let me just say this:

In fact, I am blogging at a new site I have just finished setting up: kennethhynek.net. A full explanation for the reasons behind the move can be found here.

That said, this is not the end of Time Immortal. My wife Grace has expressed interest in taking over blogging at this domain, and I am working to make sure that she gets set up here as soon as possible.

Also, my profound apologies for the modification to the site face; the move was not as seamless as I would have hoped, and many of the image files for this theme, and in the gallery, were corrupted during the course of their evacuation from my previous web host’s servers. Until such time as I have repaired them, I’ve put a clean-looking template in place of the previous one.

TK writes in with a comment on my surprisingly prolific final Cylon theory (which, for the Reader who does not know, points to Karl Agathon — Helo, by callsign — as the final Cylon yet to be revealed on the television show Battlestar Galactica).

I’m finding myself somewhat in agreement with your hypothesis regarding Helo as a Cylon, well the numero uno cylon. I was watching The Farm the other day and I noticed when Starbuck had her vision (dream), that it was [Samuel Anders] and Helo who held her wrists while Anders said he wanted to have a baby with her. When it was all said and done, it turns out Anders is a Cylon, and they are interested in procreation. Why was it not Lee Adama holding Kara’s other hand??? He is her other love interest, so why shouldn’t he be there in opposition to Anders?? Your essay was well thought out and presented. I wish we did not have to wait until 2009 to see who the big kahuna Cylon is.

TK

TK raises a valuable point, one I had previously not considered — the vision in The Farm. I am going to have to re-watch that episode this weekend to refresh my memory as to the specific sequence, but if so, it could indeed be another valuable clue.

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Mind the spoilers!

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It is a pity that we have to wait until 2009 to find out who the last Cylon really is, but I don’t imagine that we’ll have to wait that long once the series starts back up again. The next episode, Sometimes A Great Notion, would have served as the series finalé had the WGA strike gone on too long. Since I can’t see Ron Moore leaving us hanging in such an eventuality, there’s a good probability that the opening episode of the second half of this final season of BSG may in fact see the last Cylon revealed.

Certainly, the trailer for the next episode implies this to be the case. And really, I can’t see the producers thinking it a wise choice to waste time — when there’s already going to be fan tension due to a delay — going back and re-shooting parts of the episode just to prolong the tension a bit more.

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You may resume reading now, O avoider of spoilers!

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At any rate: thanks, TK, for adding your own insight to this matter.

At the end of Revelations, the mid-season cliffhanger of Battlestar Galactica’s fourth and final season, the Colonial fleet and their renegade Cylon allies find and land on a planet that all involved believe to be Earth, the legendary home of the 13th Tribe of Kobol.

The planet itself appears blue from space, but is quickly discovered to be a nuclear wasteland, devoid of life and marked only by decimated buildings and burnt-out ruins. The immediate conclusion that the producers of the show likely wanted us to jump to was that yes, this was Earth, and that the 13th colony had somehow destroyed itself. As a lesson in human concupiscence, that wouldn’t be a bad ending in and of itself, but there are a few questions left unanswered if one simply assumes that one can take the show at face value as to the identity of this ruined planet.

First off, there’s the issue of how vague and masked the shots of the planet from orbit are. I mentioned this before, but I just found a handy comparison image (as well as a reasonable theory about who the final Cylon might just be) on another blog that tells the tale better than before:

Now, there’s been a fair bit of argument that the ruins themselves tell the tale. In particular, a number of people have made the association between the ruined bridge seen at the end of Revelations and the Brooklyn Bridge. Personally, I’m not convinced; this show has been marked by repeated examples that what the characters think they see is not necessarily what is (e.g. Starbuck’s seeing a gas giant that was thought to be Jupiter, but turned out not to be, or her seeing a comet that turned out to be the damaged rebel basestar). I certainly think that the ending scene was composed so as to make us think of New York, but I won’t say for certain whether that’s what was being depicted.

At the end of the third season, the CGI was unambiguous: Earth was easily recognized, and the shape of the North American continent was distinct. As the comparison photos above tell, in this discovery of Earth there is nothing about the planet itself which obviously suggests that it is Earth. No continents are visible, and much of the world is dark. Ron Moore et. al. are far too “tricksy” (apologies to Smeagol) for this to be a mere coincidence, or simple artistic license. There is some meaning to the sudden lack of clarity.

There is also the matter of pretty much every main character, including Laura Roslin (supposedly the “dying leader” who will not live to see the proper end of the journey of humanity across the stars), being on the surface of the planet. Unless the producers are setting us up for some kind of “actually, it was this dead character all along” sort of letdown, it seems that a second objection to the probability that this devastated planet is actually Earth must be raised¹.

On the other hand, there is the matter that Felix Gaeta did match the various constellations when the fleet first arrived into orbit of this ruined planet. Initially, I remarked that “it would be very nearly impossible to find another point in the galaxy in which all those stars appeared to align in just that way.” However, in making that statement, I forgot to take three things into account, which I was reminded of when I read this article at The Science of Battlestar Galactica:

1. How accurate were the images of the constellations that Gaeta was working from?
2. How many of the constellations were visible to Gaeta when he made his checks (e.g. were any of them occluded by the planet or the system’s Sun)?
3. Is it actually impossible that the stars might not line up in more or less the same manner from some other point?

The answer to the third question has actually already been given to us in a subtle way by BSG’s producers: the constellation Orion appears, more or less properly configured, in the episode The Ties that Bind, in the backdrop of the ambush on the rebel basestars by the pro-Raider-lobotomy Cylon faction. Surely the Cylons would have noticed whether or not there was a habitable world in reasonably close proximity to the location of said fracas?

Of course, one constellation lining up could just be a coincidence — in theory, so long as the Cylons were on a more or less straight-line path between Earth and the approximate middle of Orion’s shape, the alignment of the stars would remain the same — one would expect to see the constellation get “larger” in one’s view, perhaps, and one might also reasonably expect to note changes in the apparent brightness of the various stars themselves. The shape of the constellation, though, would be essentially unchanged.

That by no means implies that the shape of eleven other constellations visible from Earth would likewise remain constant. This illustration demonstrates how different Orion would look to us were we viewing it from a position situated roughly 90 degrees counter-clockwise from Earth’s present location.

However, the distances we are talking about in such a hypothetical situation are immense; were we fairly close to Earth, would the constellations look drastically different, or would they appear somewhat similar?

It turns out that “similar” is the correct answer (and it further turns out that this brings us to the second question):

If Gaeta was checking the position of the zodiacal constellations with a sketch made from the Temple of Athena data, he’s out of luck. As seen from Alpha Centauri, those constellations would be virtually identical to those seen from Earth, the chief difference being that Castor and Pollux, the Heads of the Gemini Twins, don’t quite line up with their bodies. If Gaeta had incomplete data, or if the constellation Gemini was not visible for some reason (being occulted by Alpha Centauri, for example), he’d be absolutely correct in reporting that all “visible” constellations are a match, even though the fleet would be in the wrong place.

In the same way, the fleet could have arrived at Tai Ceti or Epsilon Eridani, two other type G sunlike stars in our local neighborhood. The zodiacal constellations as seen from those systems would be more distorted, especially around the cancer-Leo and Aries-Taurus regions. But again, if Gaeta’s data are sketchy and the local star is blocking out the appropriate regions of the zodiac, the rest of the constellations should pass muster.

This issue of distorted constellations leads us back to the first question. The data set Gaeta would be working from would be some manner of representation of the constellations seen by those few who entered into the Tomb of Athena and saw the holographic projection therein. As far as we, the viewer, know, nobody took any kind of recording of the images displayed therein, and it is reasonable to assume that any reproduction of the positions of the stars would be hand-drawn sketches made while the memory of what was seen was reasonably fresh. That’s all well and good, but it is by no means an assurance of accuracy.

Lt. Gaeta, when checking to see whether the fleet had jumped to the right spot, said that the visible constellations are a match. But a match with what set of data? Lee said that they had “projected a course to the signal” and that it would probably take some revising. That tells me the Colonial beacon signal did not include a 3-d starmap. Is Gaeta checking the constellations with what the jump calculations predicted the resulting constellations should look like? That would only prove that they jumped to where they expected to jump — it wouldn’t prove that they had jumped to Earth.

Or is he comparing the visible constellations with the constellations they saw in the planetarium show back at the Temple of Athena on Kobol? It’s hardly likely — the display in the temple focused on the twelve constellations of our Zodiac. Lee spotted the Lagoon Nebula, and his father backed him up by calling it “M8” — but did we see either of them record those constellations? (If it was a shared hallucination, was it even possible to have recorded the constellations? ) And if they did record the constellations, to what level of precision did they do so? I think it’s much more likely that the pilots come out of the planetarium and, at best, drew the stick figures from memory. And if that’s that happened, then Gaeta’s comparison data are going to be literally sketchy.

To this point in the series, we’ve seen or heard of over a dozen human-habitable worlds: the Twelve Colonies, New Caprica, the algae planet, Kobol, and now this newly-discovered ruined world. That’s a fairly substantial chunk of real estate that the humans have discovered simply by jumping from place to place.

In the original series, there was an instance of an Earth-like planet being found, and for which several hints were dropped suggesting that it might be Earth. That planet was Terra, home of two warring factions that nearly wiped each other out in a nuclear confrontation. Indeed, they were saved only by Galactica’s timely arrival.

It’s possible, then, that in this iteration of BSG, Galactica has arrived too late, and has discovered a wiped-out Terra. But perhaps, in the ruins somewhere, will be found the final pointers toward Earth. This would certainly be a good reason for the show’s producers to make the planet so ambiguous when viewed from orbit as in Revelations — an unfamiliar continental form would give things away far too quickly².

At any rate, we know this show must go on from here³, and a big part of where it goes come 2009 is likely going to be caught up in the exact identity of this ruined world that the Colonials and Cylons have now come to. There’s plenty of good reason, based both in fact and in the idea of dramatic, message-driven storytelling, to think that the planet that was found was, in fact, Earth. But there’s also plenty of room for doubt. This season especially, BSG’s writers have pulled off one act of sleight-of-hand after another, and it’s entirely possible that they’re doing it to us again.

In fact, I think it’s probably likely.

Notes — mind the spoilers:

1. Admittedly, in the case that this planet is actually Earth, and the “promised land” which the dying leader shall not see is another planet (e.g. Terra or its equivalent), this objection is pretty much null and void.

2. Edward James Olmos asserted that there would be a dark end to the series, and I would be remiss if I didn’t mention this blogger’s counter-theory regarding Earth/Terra: perhaps this really is Earth, and the Fleet moves on to find the Thirteenth Tribe on Terra (or some analogous world).

3. Scenes for the final episodes of the series were shot in and around Kamloops, British Columbia, and involved lots of physically fit extras with crop-cut hair or dreadlocks. Scenes were also evidently shot in the city of Kamloops proper, which would imply that the series ends on some manner of inhabited world. Whether this is the Colonials realizing that they are the 13th tribe — itself perhaps a product of the twelve tribes united into one — and accepting that it is their bitter fate to be the ones to re-settle the Earth, or whether this is the Colonials finding their bretheren on another planet is yet to be seen.

Also, it should be noted that other scenes of the series finale were shot at Simon Fraser University in Vancouver, in the area that had previously been used for the Riverwalk district on Caprica. The scenes apparently involved Laura Roslin. This would suggest either a return to Caprica (now that would be dark!) by the remnants of the Fleet, or perhaps various persistent visions/hallucinations on the part of some of the characters (William Adama, perhaps, pining for Roslin?).

Then too, perhaps my theory that BSG is an eschatological tale for our time will pan out, and the closing scenes of the series will be like those in Roslin and Emily’s dreams in the episode Faith. Certainly, there is a religious metaphor (and possibly more than just a metaphor — one would not be surprised to see humanity come into a confrontation with the divine in this show) at work within the plot of the series, and it has more or less been confirmed that God is an active, present force within the BSG universe.

More than a few people have suggested that there is a “creation myth” element to the series, and while many of these appeal to the significance of Hera Agathon, I think they miss something. Assuming I am wrong — that is, assuming that Karl Agathon — Helo — is not the final Cylon, and assuming that Hera is the humano-Cylon child who is exclusively significant (in keeping with everything we’ve seen on the series to date), then in her and Nicholas Tyrol there is not to be found a parallel in Adam and Eve.

There is, however, a parallel to be found in Joseph and Mary, in the Blessed Virgin and her carpenter husband.

Dani writes in all the way from Barcelona to offer his opinion on my final Cylon theory, which I recently expanded a bit toward the end of this article.

Hey there!

Well, first of all I want to apologise for my poor english… (I’m from Barcelona, by the way) So please, consider this if at any moment I could use rude or innapropiated words… It is really NOT my intention!

Second, the way I arrived to your site. I just looked for “Helo final cylon” on Google

Why I did it? Well, I’ve allways suspected about this issue about Helo (I’ve heard it many times) “it was planned for him to death at the beggining of the show, but just because he did quite well the producers — or whoever — decide to keep him”. I’ve never swallow it, sounds to me like the producers pretends to divert the attention from him. Don’t you?

And third, I would really like to say congratulations for your fantastic theory regarding Helo like the final five. Absolutely, deep and precise. I’ve really enjoyed.

But the point is I need just one more answer. What about the Moore sentence: “the final five is NOT in The Last Supper picture”. Maybe you have wrote something about this, but I really didn’t find it out… So, was Moore cheating us? Or maybe there is anything else behind the picture that we can’t see yet?

I would really appreciate if you could send me just a few words…

Many, many thanks! And, again, congratulations! I’m sure you’re right!

There was certainly some debate, O Reader, as to whether Tahmoh Penikett’s charachter — Karl Agathon — was supposed to be a “one shot” personality who would have been assumed to have perished after the miniseries had ended. The rumour goes that Penikett’s performance was well-liked by the producers, and so the writers kept him in the plot first as a survivor, then as the Cylons’ mark for a possible “mate” for the Number Eight who eventually became Sharon Agathon, and finally as one of the more important recurring characters in the series.

But right there, the Reader should be able to note that while the genesis of Helo makes sense within the narrative of BSG, Helo himself has climbed pretty far up the totem pole for someone who was supposed to be a “one-shot” character. It’s certainly quite possible that the rumours concerning his supposed expendability are a clever bit of deception on the part of Battlestar Galactica’s producers. Then again, maybe not — the whole idea of the Final Five had not yet been formed during the series’ first season. Of course, that’s just another rumour.

As to the last question that Dani asks, concerning the “Last Supper” photograph, I did actually take into account what Ron Moore had said regarding the identity of the final missing Cylon and its relationship to the picture. Concerning this issue, I wrote: “I wouldn’t put it past Ron Moore, good Reader, to mislead people a little bit, especially if there was a danger of too much being revealed in some way. Equally, it’s entirely possible he was telling the truth. I do know that he later remarked that he “probably shouldn’t have said” what he said about the people in “The Last Supper,” but whether that was because he felt he’d given too much away or because he had now put himself into a position whereby he’d have to contradict himself later on, I can’t say.

…I think the main point here is that whoever the final Cylon is revealed to be, he or (possibly) she will be the parent of one of the babies currently believed to by half-Cylon and half-human. The whole series has revolved around the issue of the “humanity” of the Cylons and their apparently inability to reproduce. I think that the revelation of the final Cylon will necessarily accompany the additional (and simultaneous) revelation that Cylons can, in fact, reproduce successfully.

And I still think that [Hera Agathon] will be revealed as the fully Cylon child, given that Season 3 spent an awful lot of time trying to build up her significance. I’ve only read the first Dune book, but it seems to me that there is a parallel between the Kwisatz Haderach and what Hera is.

Which brings us back to Helo.

So, did Ron Moore lie to us? Time will tell…but I will say that I have no problem believing that Ron Moore is trying to deflect speculation down incorrect avenues.”

Now, I will admit, O Reader, that I lost one bet; Hera turned out not to be the first fully Cylon child revealed to the viewers (that honour goes to the child of Caprica Six and Saul Tigh). That said, I don’t think this diminishes Hera’s significance in any way. And as I noted more recently, we must come back to “the issue of the First Hybrid’s prophecy that the final Cylon would be revealed only in the “howl of terrible suffering”. Given Sharon Agathon’s passionate defence of Hera in the past — including her willingness to kill any Cylon who might even remotely threaten her child (even by way of mere proximity) — it stands to reason that if D’Anna harbours any designs on Hera, that fact will bring Sharon and D’Anna into direct conflict in the near future.

And perhaps neither Sharon nor D’Anna will survive the encounter. Perhaps Hera will be gravely endangered. And perhaps Helo will weather that terrible suffering only by discovering, and somehow coming to terms, with his Cylonity.”

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Mind the spoliers, please!

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Given that the current rumours suggest that the character of Number Three — D’Anna Biers — will only be on the show for another episode or two, it’s quite possible that just such a violent resolution will come to pass. After all, D’Anna has to disappear from the narrative somehow, and she could well turn out to be the first casualty promised by the producers when they said that the Cylon Civil War would result in the death of three Cylon models.

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Ding! Spoilers are done.

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Time will tell, O Reader.

I do have to say, though, that I’m more than a little surprised that something I wrote is being read in as far away a place (from Edmonton, at least) as Barcelona. Thanks very much for writing in, Dani — that’s really cool.

Well, Grace and I just watched the latest episode of Battlestar Galactica, Revelations, and I have to say that on the whole, I rather agree with Barb Nicolosi as far as the last few minutes of the show are concerned. The discovery of Earth (pictured below) is a delight, a moment of pure and unrestrained joy. It’s exceptionally well-filmed (or well-rendered, in the case of the effects), well-timed, and well-scored (in fact, the music is phenomenal)…so uplifting.

And then, three minutes later, the show leaves you with the feeling that you’ve been punched in the gut, as the show ends in “desolation and shock.” The transition between high and low is at once sudden and (impossibly) gradual, as Earth turns out to be not the “promised land” that everyone on the Colonial fleet — even the atheistic William Adama — thought it would prove to be. Instead of teeming with vibrant human life in the form of the Thirteenth Tribe, Earth is a burnt-out, irradiated wasteland.

What is more, the nuclear holocaust does not appear to be a recent one — this is not the handiwork of the Cylon faction headed by the Cavils (Number Ones). The series producers were very good about showing us a world in the immediate aftermath of a nuclear attack with the scenes set on post-apocalyptic Caprica; it was yellow, the atmosphere was murky, and it was obvious that fallout had polluted the atmosphere. By contrast, Earth is blue, its skies cloudy, but not in that “airborne dust” kind of way. Whatever the nature of the destruction that is evident in those final, gut-wrenching moments of the mid-season finale of BSG, it is not a recent destruction.

The episode as a whole is intense — some of the best television I’ve seen in a while, in fact. About halfway through the show, Grace remarked that there was a lot of interesting stuff happening, and indeed there was…the events of the show could easily have been spaced out into at least two, maybe three episodes. I suppose, taken in comparison to the relatively plodding pace of events so far this season, the argument could be made that Revelations feels rushed. But I observe that for myself, the only reason that the rest of the season feels rather plodding has to do with hindsight. I’ve had no problems with the pacing of the other episodes this season, either as rushed or as plodding, and I’ve no problems with the intense level of action and narrative that is in this mid-season cliffhanger.

The episode splits into roughly three acts: a first, longer act that deals with D’Anna’s attempts to liberate the Penultimate Four Cylons from the Fleet, a shorter second act that deals with the Colonials playing hardball right back, and a third act that deals with Earth both as a legitimate destination that is finally within reach, and as a larger, unifying principle. Spread throughout each act are the seeds of an idea that Kara Thrace explicitly states during the bridge between second act and the third: something or someone beyond human comprehension is orchestrating events.

What’s more, her reasoning is edifying. It’s rare when I actually applaud (inwardly, at least) something theological said on a television show these days — most of the entertainment industry, it seems, has no clue about how serious, intelligent religious people actually think. But there went Starbuck with her analysis of events, and it really was spot-on. With a dubious Lee Adama, sarcastically dismissing the notion that a “higher power” might be at work in events, Starbuck replies with conviction and clarity, and makes her case well:

Kara: Gaeta’s confirmed it. The channel is empty except for this Viper. [pause] It’s gotta be a signal from Earth.

Lee: You’re reaching, Kara.

Kara: C’mon Lee, add it up. [Lee gets out of the Viper] I vanished into a storm, ride this Viper to Earth. Coming back, I get a vision that leads me to the baseship. It’s Hybrid tells me that the Final Five Cylons have been to Earth. But we need the missing Three — D’Anna — to bring them out to the open.

Lee: [somewhat sarcastically] And now we’re starting to get messages from the beyond.

Kara: You heard the signal. The final Cylons led me to it. If it’s Earth, they’ve given us the home of the Thirteenth Tribe…just the way the Hybrid said it would happen. Like it or not, Lee, something is orchestrating this for a purpose

Lee: [still sarcastic] *sniff* A higher power.

Kara: Call it whatever you want. But it seems to want us to find Earth with the Cylons.

God has, within the BSG universe, been ever more present as the plot has progressed, and here again He turns up, defying the expectations of most. It will be interesting to see how the second half of the series, which all leads up to the finalé, will handle the issue of deity.

(Interesting note: in the final scene, as the camera pans over the various people standing amidst the ruins on Earth, take note of the cross rather plainly emblazoned onto the rock near Helo and Athena.)

>> The Final Five

Well, it turns out that I was completely wrong on one account — Samuel Anders was not the first of the Final Five to be outed. Indeed, the argument could be made that he was the last one to be outed, in a more or less complete reversal of what I had expected. Tory Foster is the first one revealed (though not on Galactica proper; she uses duplicity to get onto the rebel basestar and it is there that she outs herself, eventually telling off Laura Roslin).

What is interesting is how the rift that had previously emerged in the Penultimate Four has now, more or less, become a fixed divide. Foster more or less completely embraces her Cylonity, to the point of misanthropy. Her hatred of humanity is palpable, and I wouldn’t be surprised if at some point she flipped sides to join Cavil’s faction, when next we meet them.

Tigh’s revelation to Adama was shattering, and Adama’s flipping out was a perfectly natural result. Kudos to Edward James Olmos for a dramatic and heart-rending scene; one would totally believe that Adama had, in the span of mere minutes, been totally broken and reduced to primal rage, and then to tears. A lifetime worth of emotional pain exploded out of the Admiral in the aftermath of what was, for him, one final act of betrayal…and then by his best friend of three decades. Every act, every bad call, and every kid he sent out in a Viper to get killed haunted and hounded him, until he was drooling and sobbing into his son’s arms.

It was a painful scene to watch.

>> Old ways, new ways

I liked that Lee Adama raised an interesting point when talking with Number Three — D’Anna Biers. It was actually a point I’d raised before: throughout the mythology of the series, the idea that history is somehow cyclical has been the predominant philosophy. The way out, if any existed, was in my view to somehow break that cycle, to strike out in a new direction.

Lee Adama said this directly when proposing an alliance, and a peace, with the rebel Cylons.

What was interesting is how soundly this episode utterly rejected, in multiple ways, the old paradigm of eternal conflict between man and Cylon. D’Anna is operating on that paradigm, and Tory Foster (expressing her anti-human sentiments well) eggs her on in a violent, standoffish course when it comes to dealing with the humans. The humans react in kind, and the situation escalates almost to the point of a nuclear exchange between the two sides, which surely would have resulted in the near-anhiliation of humanity and the rebel Cylon faction (and, quite probably, the Final Five).

Into the midst of this, nothing less than God steps in to intercede. Baltar appeals to D’Anna, arguing passionately that the violent course of action failed on New Caprica and then again on the algae planet just prior to her being boxed — why would she think that this time, violence would achieve the desired ends? Meanwhile, Starbuck pleads with Lee Adama that events have been unfolding in an orchestrated, planned, intentional way that involves both humans and Cylons playing the agentic roles in God’s greater design. She all but begs Lee to realize that whatever the way forward must be, it must be in partnership with the Cylons, because everything unravels without their involvement as well. Both arguments — that of Gaius Baltar and that of Kara Thrace — are arguments from faith, and have resounding, and astounding, power.

There seems to be dawning, on everyone, a realization that the old way of doing things — hatred, distrust, eternal war — will only lead both human and Cylon closer and closer to their respective endings, which are already dangerously close enough.

>> The Other Cylons

Just a couple of remarks here. I agree with Dale Price’s remarks concerning Leoben. The Leoben Conoy Cylons began as tricksters and deceivers, like Loki with stubble and a slightly raspy voice. Since then, they have become genuinely devout prophets and servants, and are increasingly benevolent in both their desired ends and the means they use to achieve them.

I also observe that the Number Eights are still fickle, and readily swarm to the aid of D’Anna when she returns and launches her initially anti-human crusade for the Final Five.

>> Earth

One thing I noticed right off the bat was that the producers weren’t showing us everything about Earth.

Think about it for a minute, O Reader. At the end of Season 3, in the final wild, galactic-scale zooming shot, the Earth was very visibly our planet — North America was prominently featured:

And yet now, with the fleet having finally arrived at this fabled planet, the shots are murky or dark (and one notes that there’s a subtle visual clue in the dark portions of Earth suggesting it is abandoned — were it populated, lights of cities would surely be visible!), clouds obscure the continental landmasses, and in the ruins there are no easy visual indicators suggesting a familiar location to the viewer (some have tried to suggest that the one bridge-like ruin in the background might be the Brooklyn Bridge — I remain agnostic on this point).

So is this Earth? It would seem to be, especially since Felix Gaeta confirmed the presence of constellations. And yet, the producers are being deliberately vague; it is possible that the Fleet has gone astray, and somehow arrived at the wrong place in spite of all the signs. Is this Earth?

The issue of Laura Roslin actually…you know…surviving to see the surface of the planet is a key point here; if she really is the dying leader of the Pythian prophecy, she shouldn’t actually get to see Earth (think of Moses and the Promised Land). But here she is, standing right beside Bill Adama on the surface of the planet. Most intriguing…either this isn’t Earth, or else Roslin isn’t the dying leader the thought she was (though she is dying, to be sure).

I’m of two minds about the planet that everyone seems to think is Earth, myself.

On one hand, it could very well be Earth. As noted, everyone — even the non-believers — had built themselves up a myth of Earth as some kind of promised land. I don’t know why, but it honestly seemed as though the people of the Colonies thought they could just show up in orbit of their long-lost brothers and sisters in the Thirteenth Tribe, drop anchor (so to speak), land, and be welcomed with open arms into a lush, fruitful land overflowing with ambrosia and…uhm…Tauron sugar biscuits…?

Whatever…the point is that their expectations failed to take one thing into account: the Thirteenth Tribe was also composed of humans, flawed and imperfect, and prone to things like murder, dishonesty, and all the same sins that Bill Adama listed off in his speech during the Miniseries. Not more than a few hours prior to finding Earth, humanity and the Cylon rebels were no more than a handful of seconds away from using nuclear weapons to wipe each other out…can they really be surprised to find, then, that the Thirteenth Tribe may well have done the same?

On the other hand, maybe this isn’t Earth. Maybe it was just a way-station on the way to Earth, just another marker/pointer like the beacon, the algae planet, and the Ionian Nebula. It’s wholly possible that Kara Thrace’s mission as guide is not over, and that her Viper was just pointing out the next waypoint rather than the final destination. This seems unlikely given Gaeta’s confirmation of the constellations, however — it would be very nearly impossible to find another point in the galaxy in which all those stars appeared to align in just that way.

Whatever the reality, the discovery is going to cause real problems in the coming episodes. The alliance with the Cylons is fragile enough as it is, and this could potentially weaken it to the breaking point again. Or it could make the alliance stronger, as humanity and Cylon have now come face to face with the fullest implications of their mutually destructive ways.

It will almost surely trigger a wave of despair and suicides in the body of the Fleet proper. Riots too, most likely. For many of the Colonial survivors, Earth was not only their final hope, but their only hope — now that it’s gone, it will drive many of them to instability and violence, either against others or, more probably, against themselves.

>> The Last Cylon

If we pick apart D’Anna’s curt statement — that there are only four Cylons in the Fleet — we have to come to one of a handful of conclusions as to where the final Cylon might be. As I see it, the possibilities are thus:

1. Earth
2. The rebel basestar
3. Cavil’s basestar (or one of the other ships loyal to him)
4. Caprica
5. The final Cylon is not someone currently known to be living (e.g. a character currently listed as “dead”

Each of these theories is problematic, save one. Every other possibility save for the second has one major glaring flaw, and that is the scope of D’Anna’s knowledge. She has been boxed for (about) a year. In that time, she has received no knowledge of what has transpired between humanity and the Cylons, nor does she have the slightest reason to think, apart from the claims of those on the ship with her, that any other humans besides those that are on the rebel basestar are even alive.

The question that we must raise here concerns the scope of D’Anna’s knowledge of individual human beings. One of two things is possible:

1. Either she knew all of the Final Five on sight when she encountered them in her vision, or
2. She only knew four of them; the fifth was someone she’d never met before

The latter option is unlikely; D’Anna has always, always maintained that she knows all of the Five. So really, the former is the only option that makes sense, both from the perspective of the narrative thus far, and from the perspective of the quality of the series (introducing some new face just to out him or her as a Cylon would, I think, be a rather insulting cheap-shot by the series producers).

Assuming, then, that D’Anna knows who all of the Final Five are, her knowledge that only four of them are with the Fleet means one of three things:

1. D’Anna encountered the final Cylon on the rebel basestar, but did not acknowledge him or her
2. D’Anna has exterior knowledge of every human being currently in the Fleet, and knows that none of them is the final Cylon

That second option splits into two possibilities:

• Her knowledge stems from when she was briefly among the people of the Fleet as a journalist; she was somehow able to catalogue every last survivor and knows all of them on sight
• Her knowledge has a supernatural origin

Personally, I discount the two possibilities above as unlikely, which renders the second point above them equally invalid. I trust the Reader can see why I elect to do this.

Which leaves the first point — D’Anna encountered the final Cylon on the rebel basestar, but said nothing. This is actually a very reasonable conjecture — D’Anna’s silence can be explained away by the fact that the D’Anna Cylon model always has an agenda, and her silence could easily be useful in service of that agenda.

>> Predictions (mind the spoilers)

1. Invigorated by the fact that D’Anna specifically stated that only four of the Final Five were in the Fleet, I remain steadfast in my conviction that Helo — Karl Agathon — is the final Cylon.

The reason for this renewed conviction has to do with what Grace and I discussed about D’Anna’s meaning when she said that only four of the Final Five were in the Fleet. Grace agreed that the statement most likely meant that the fifth was on the basestar…but she wondered why D’Anna had not singled the fifth out in that case.

My reply was the last line of the analysis section pertaining to this topic, above: D’Anna has an agenda. Grace wondered what her agenda would be, and how her silence would benefit it. In thinking about this today, it seems to me that the answer might once again be little Hera Agathon. D’Anna was passionate in her search for the child, and could well be after Hera once again (for all we know). She could well be keeping silent on the matter of Helo’s Cylonity in order to achieve that end.

Which brings us back to the issue of the First Hybrid’s prophecy that the final Cylon would be revealed only in the “howl of terrible suffering”. Given Sharon Agathon’s passionate defence of Hera in the past — including her willingness to kill any Cylon who might even remotely threaten her child (even by way of mere proximity) — it stands to reason that if D’Anna harbours any designs on Hera, that fact will bring Sharon and D’Anna into direct conflict in the near future.

And perhaps neither Sharon nor D’Anna will survive the encounter. Perhaps Hera will be gravely endangered. And perhaps Helo will weather that terrible suffering only by discovering, and somehow coming to terms, with his Cylonity.

2. It is ultimately Roslin, in a tender, loving moment, who pulls Adama out of his abyss. More and more, she is affecting him, and it’s a beautiful, if subtle trend.

I think she’ll eventually lead him into the fold of faith; I don’t think he’ll end the series mired down in atheism.

3. As noted above (and as predicted), Tory is increasingly anti-human in her outlook and actions. When next we see Cavil (and we will see him soon, methinks), I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Tory joined up with his forces.

4. The basestar Hybrids seem to have their own agenda as well, and I’m thinking that Cavil’s people will find out from their own Hybrids that Earth has been discovered.

Update: Welcome, Dale Price readers!