Time Immortal

Just as a follow-up on this article, I downloaded a program called Celestia, and while it’s probably not 100% accurate, it does offer a fairly decent ability to simulate…well…a particular issue that was raised concerning the identity of the planet that was discovered at the end of the mid-season cliffhanger of Battlestar Galactica, a planet that is supposedly Earth.

Here’s the constellation Orion, as viewed from Earth (more or less). The stars highlighted in green are the component stars of Orion, while the star selected in red is Muliphein (Gamma Canis Majoris), a bright giant star situated just over 400 light years from Earth.

Looks pretty normal, eh? Now let’s look at Orion from nearby Alpha Centauri.

As the Reader can hopefully see, the alignment of the stars is nearly identical. For good measure, let’s look at Orion from one other nearby star, Tau Ceti.

And here again, Orion is nearly the same as would be seen from Earth…this despite the fact that Tau Ceti is just shy of twelve light years away from us.

Now, to hammer the point home, let’s take a look at Orion from Muliphein, which isn’t anywhere near as close to us, but not all that far when compared to the distances mentioned in BSG.

I can’t actually fit all of Orion’s stars into the frame of the picture, so spread out have they become. And the shape? Forget about it; from this frame of reference, Orion is no more. But hopefully the Reader can see that constellations are not a great way to mark a planet’s location, especially if one isn’t working from the most accurate data set to begin with.

Now, just to prove that I’m not using a biased sample here, let’s try the same experiment with a more complex constellation (and one that’s relevant to BSG as well): Capricorn. Here’s the view from Earth (this time, I managed to frame Earth in the shot as well).
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At the end of Revelations, the mid-season cliffhanger of Battlestar Galactica’s fourth and final season, the Colonial fleet and their renegade Cylon allies find and land on a planet that all involved believe to be Earth, the legendary home of the 13th Tribe of Kobol.

The planet itself appears blue from space, but is quickly discovered to be a nuclear wasteland, devoid of life and marked only by decimated buildings and burnt-out ruins. The immediate conclusion that the producers of the show likely wanted us to jump to was that yes, this was Earth, and that the 13th colony had somehow destroyed itself. As a lesson in human concupiscence, that wouldn’t be a bad ending in and of itself, but there are a few questions left unanswered if one simply assumes that one can take the show at face value as to the identity of this ruined planet.

First off, there’s the issue of how vague and masked the shots of the planet from orbit are. I mentioned this before, but I just found a handy comparison image (as well as a reasonable theory about who the final Cylon might just be) on another blog that tells the tale better than before:

Now, there’s been a fair bit of argument that the ruins themselves tell the tale. In particular, a number of people have made the association between the ruined bridge seen at the end of Revelations and the Brooklyn Bridge. Personally, I’m not convinced; this show has been marked by repeated examples that what the characters think they see is not necessarily what is (e.g. Starbuck’s seeing a gas giant that was thought to be Jupiter, but turned out not to be, or her seeing a comet that turned out to be the damaged rebel basestar). I certainly think that the ending scene was composed so as to make us think of New York, but I won’t say for certain whether that’s what was being depicted.

At the end of the third season, the CGI was unambiguous: Earth was easily recognized, and the shape of the North American continent was distinct. As the comparison photos above tell, in this discovery of Earth there is nothing about the planet itself which obviously suggests that it is Earth. No continents are visible, and much of the world is dark. Ron Moore et. al. are far too “tricksy” (apologies to Smeagol) for this to be a mere coincidence, or simple artistic license. There is some meaning to the sudden lack of clarity.

There is also the matter of pretty much every main character, including Laura Roslin (supposedly the “dying leader” who will not live to see the proper end of the journey of humanity across the stars), being on the surface of the planet. Unless the producers are setting us up for some kind of “actually, it was this dead character all along” sort of letdown, it seems that a second objection to the probability that this devastated planet is actually Earth must be raised¹.

On the other hand, there is the matter that Felix Gaeta did match the various constellations when the fleet first arrived into orbit of this ruined planet. Initially, I remarked that “it would be very nearly impossible to find another point in the galaxy in which all those stars appeared to align in just that way.” However, in making that statement, I forgot to take three things into account, which I was reminded of when I read this article at The Science of Battlestar Galactica:

1. How accurate were the images of the constellations that Gaeta was working from?
2. How many of the constellations were visible to Gaeta when he made his checks (e.g. were any of them occluded by the planet or the system’s Sun)?
3. Is it actually impossible that the stars might not line up in more or less the same manner from some other point?

The answer to the third question has actually already been given to us in a subtle way by BSG’s producers: the constellation Orion appears, more or less properly configured, in the episode The Ties that Bind, in the backdrop of the ambush on the rebel basestars by the pro-Raider-lobotomy Cylon faction. Surely the Cylons would have noticed whether or not there was a habitable world in reasonably close proximity to the location of said fracas?

Of course, one constellation lining up could just be a coincidence — in theory, so long as the Cylons were on a more or less straight-line path between Earth and the approximate middle of Orion’s shape, the alignment of the stars would remain the same — one would expect to see the constellation get “larger” in one’s view, perhaps, and one might also reasonably expect to note changes in the apparent brightness of the various stars themselves. The shape of the constellation, though, would be essentially unchanged.

That by no means implies that the shape of eleven other constellations visible from Earth would likewise remain constant. This illustration demonstrates how different Orion would look to us were we viewing it from a position situated roughly 90 degrees counter-clockwise from Earth’s present location.

However, the distances we are talking about in such a hypothetical situation are immense; were we fairly close to Earth, would the constellations look drastically different, or would they appear somewhat similar?

It turns out that “similar” is the correct answer (and it further turns out that this brings us to the second question):

If Gaeta was checking the position of the zodiacal constellations with a sketch made from the Temple of Athena data, he’s out of luck. As seen from Alpha Centauri, those constellations would be virtually identical to those seen from Earth, the chief difference being that Castor and Pollux, the Heads of the Gemini Twins, don’t quite line up with their bodies. If Gaeta had incomplete data, or if the constellation Gemini was not visible for some reason (being occulted by Alpha Centauri, for example), he’d be absolutely correct in reporting that all “visible” constellations are a match, even though the fleet would be in the wrong place.

In the same way, the fleet could have arrived at Tai Ceti or Epsilon Eridani, two other type G sunlike stars in our local neighborhood. The zodiacal constellations as seen from those systems would be more distorted, especially around the cancer-Leo and Aries-Taurus regions. But again, if Gaeta’s data are sketchy and the local star is blocking out the appropriate regions of the zodiac, the rest of the constellations should pass muster.

This issue of distorted constellations leads us back to the first question. The data set Gaeta would be working from would be some manner of representation of the constellations seen by those few who entered into the Tomb of Athena and saw the holographic projection therein. As far as we, the viewer, know, nobody took any kind of recording of the images displayed therein, and it is reasonable to assume that any reproduction of the positions of the stars would be hand-drawn sketches made while the memory of what was seen was reasonably fresh. That’s all well and good, but it is by no means an assurance of accuracy.

Lt. Gaeta, when checking to see whether the fleet had jumped to the right spot, said that the visible constellations are a match. But a match with what set of data? Lee said that they had “projected a course to the signal” and that it would probably take some revising. That tells me the Colonial beacon signal did not include a 3-d starmap. Is Gaeta checking the constellations with what the jump calculations predicted the resulting constellations should look like? That would only prove that they jumped to where they expected to jump — it wouldn’t prove that they had jumped to Earth.

Or is he comparing the visible constellations with the constellations they saw in the planetarium show back at the Temple of Athena on Kobol? It’s hardly likely — the display in the temple focused on the twelve constellations of our Zodiac. Lee spotted the Lagoon Nebula, and his father backed him up by calling it “M8” — but did we see either of them record those constellations? (If it was a shared hallucination, was it even possible to have recorded the constellations? ) And if they did record the constellations, to what level of precision did they do so? I think it’s much more likely that the pilots come out of the planetarium and, at best, drew the stick figures from memory. And if that’s that happened, then Gaeta’s comparison data are going to be literally sketchy.

To this point in the series, we’ve seen or heard of over a dozen human-habitable worlds: the Twelve Colonies, New Caprica, the algae planet, Kobol, and now this newly-discovered ruined world. That’s a fairly substantial chunk of real estate that the humans have discovered simply by jumping from place to place.

In the original series, there was an instance of an Earth-like planet being found, and for which several hints were dropped suggesting that it might be Earth. That planet was Terra, home of two warring factions that nearly wiped each other out in a nuclear confrontation. Indeed, they were saved only by Galactica’s timely arrival.

It’s possible, then, that in this iteration of BSG, Galactica has arrived too late, and has discovered a wiped-out Terra. But perhaps, in the ruins somewhere, will be found the final pointers toward Earth. This would certainly be a good reason for the show’s producers to make the planet so ambiguous when viewed from orbit as in Revelations — an unfamiliar continental form would give things away far too quickly².

At any rate, we know this show must go on from here³, and a big part of where it goes come 2009 is likely going to be caught up in the exact identity of this ruined world that the Colonials and Cylons have now come to. There’s plenty of good reason, based both in fact and in the idea of dramatic, message-driven storytelling, to think that the planet that was found was, in fact, Earth. But there’s also plenty of room for doubt. This season especially, BSG’s writers have pulled off one act of sleight-of-hand after another, and it’s entirely possible that they’re doing it to us again.

In fact, I think it’s probably likely.

Notes — mind the spoilers:

1. Admittedly, in the case that this planet is actually Earth, and the “promised land” which the dying leader shall not see is another planet (e.g. Terra or its equivalent), this objection is pretty much null and void.

2. Edward James Olmos asserted that there would be a dark end to the series, and I would be remiss if I didn’t mention this blogger’s counter-theory regarding Earth/Terra: perhaps this really is Earth, and the Fleet moves on to find the Thirteenth Tribe on Terra (or some analogous world).

3. Scenes for the final episodes of the series were shot in and around Kamloops, British Columbia, and involved lots of physically fit extras with crop-cut hair or dreadlocks. Scenes were also evidently shot in the city of Kamloops proper, which would imply that the series ends on some manner of inhabited world. Whether this is the Colonials realizing that they are the 13th tribe — itself perhaps a product of the twelve tribes united into one — and accepting that it is their bitter fate to be the ones to re-settle the Earth, or whether this is the Colonials finding their bretheren on another planet is yet to be seen.

Also, it should be noted that other scenes of the series finale were shot at Simon Fraser University in Vancouver, in the area that had previously been used for the Riverwalk district on Caprica. The scenes apparently involved Laura Roslin. This would suggest either a return to Caprica (now that would be dark!) by the remnants of the Fleet, or perhaps various persistent visions/hallucinations on the part of some of the characters (William Adama, perhaps, pining for Roslin?).

Then too, perhaps my theory that BSG is an eschatological tale for our time will pan out, and the closing scenes of the series will be like those in Roslin and Emily’s dreams in the episode Faith. Certainly, there is a religious metaphor (and possibly more than just a metaphor — one would not be surprised to see humanity come into a confrontation with the divine in this show) at work within the plot of the series, and it has more or less been confirmed that God is an active, present force within the BSG universe.

More than a few people have suggested that there is a “creation myth” element to the series, and while many of these appeal to the significance of Hera Agathon, I think they miss something. Assuming I am wrong — that is, assuming that Karl Agathon — Helo — is not the final Cylon, and assuming that Hera is the humano-Cylon child who is exclusively significant (in keeping with everything we’ve seen on the series to date), then in her and Nicholas Tyrol there is not to be found a parallel in Adam and Eve.

There is, however, a parallel to be found in Joseph and Mary, in the Blessed Virgin and her carpenter husband.

Well, Grace and I just watched the latest episode of Battlestar Galactica, Revelations, and I have to say that on the whole, I rather agree with Barb Nicolosi as far as the last few minutes of the show are concerned. The discovery of Earth (pictured below) is a delight, a moment of pure and unrestrained joy. It’s exceptionally well-filmed (or well-rendered, in the case of the effects), well-timed, and well-scored (in fact, the music is phenomenal)…so uplifting.

And then, three minutes later, the show leaves you with the feeling that you’ve been punched in the gut, as the show ends in “desolation and shock.” The transition between high and low is at once sudden and (impossibly) gradual, as Earth turns out to be not the “promised land” that everyone on the Colonial fleet — even the atheistic William Adama — thought it would prove to be. Instead of teeming with vibrant human life in the form of the Thirteenth Tribe, Earth is a burnt-out, irradiated wasteland.

What is more, the nuclear holocaust does not appear to be a recent one — this is not the handiwork of the Cylon faction headed by the Cavils (Number Ones). The series producers were very good about showing us a world in the immediate aftermath of a nuclear attack with the scenes set on post-apocalyptic Caprica; it was yellow, the atmosphere was murky, and it was obvious that fallout had polluted the atmosphere. By contrast, Earth is blue, its skies cloudy, but not in that “airborne dust” kind of way. Whatever the nature of the destruction that is evident in those final, gut-wrenching moments of the mid-season finale of BSG, it is not a recent destruction.

The episode as a whole is intense — some of the best television I’ve seen in a while, in fact. About halfway through the show, Grace remarked that there was a lot of interesting stuff happening, and indeed there was…the events of the show could easily have been spaced out into at least two, maybe three episodes. I suppose, taken in comparison to the relatively plodding pace of events so far this season, the argument could be made that Revelations feels rushed. But I observe that for myself, the only reason that the rest of the season feels rather plodding has to do with hindsight. I’ve had no problems with the pacing of the other episodes this season, either as rushed or as plodding, and I’ve no problems with the intense level of action and narrative that is in this mid-season cliffhanger.

The episode splits into roughly three acts: a first, longer act that deals with D’Anna’s attempts to liberate the Penultimate Four Cylons from the Fleet, a shorter second act that deals with the Colonials playing hardball right back, and a third act that deals with Earth both as a legitimate destination that is finally within reach, and as a larger, unifying principle. Spread throughout each act are the seeds of an idea that Kara Thrace explicitly states during the bridge between second act and the third: something or someone beyond human comprehension is orchestrating events.

What’s more, her reasoning is edifying. It’s rare when I actually applaud (inwardly, at least) something theological said on a television show these days — most of the entertainment industry, it seems, has no clue about how serious, intelligent religious people actually think. But there went Starbuck with her analysis of events, and it really was spot-on. With a dubious Lee Adama, sarcastically dismissing the notion that a “higher power” might be at work in events, Starbuck replies with conviction and clarity, and makes her case well:

Kara: Gaeta’s confirmed it. The channel is empty except for this Viper. [pause] It’s gotta be a signal from Earth.

Lee: You’re reaching, Kara.

Kara: C’mon Lee, add it up. [Lee gets out of the Viper] I vanished into a storm, ride this Viper to Earth. Coming back, I get a vision that leads me to the baseship. It’s Hybrid tells me that the Final Five Cylons have been to Earth. But we need the missing Three — D’Anna — to bring them out to the open.

Lee: [somewhat sarcastically] And now we’re starting to get messages from the beyond.

Kara: You heard the signal. The final Cylons led me to it. If it’s Earth, they’ve given us the home of the Thirteenth Tribe…just the way the Hybrid said it would happen. Like it or not, Lee, something is orchestrating this for a purpose

Lee: [still sarcastic] *sniff* A higher power.

Kara: Call it whatever you want. But it seems to want us to find Earth with the Cylons.

God has, within the BSG universe, been ever more present as the plot has progressed, and here again He turns up, defying the expectations of most. It will be interesting to see how the second half of the series, which all leads up to the finalé, will handle the issue of deity.

(Interesting note: in the final scene, as the camera pans over the various people standing amidst the ruins on Earth, take note of the cross rather plainly emblazoned onto the rock near Helo and Athena.)

>> The Final Five

Well, it turns out that I was completely wrong on one account — Samuel Anders was not the first of the Final Five to be outed. Indeed, the argument could be made that he was the last one to be outed, in a more or less complete reversal of what I had expected. Tory Foster is the first one revealed (though not on Galactica proper; she uses duplicity to get onto the rebel basestar and it is there that she outs herself, eventually telling off Laura Roslin).

What is interesting is how the rift that had previously emerged in the Penultimate Four has now, more or less, become a fixed divide. Foster more or less completely embraces her Cylonity, to the point of misanthropy. Her hatred of humanity is palpable, and I wouldn’t be surprised if at some point she flipped sides to join Cavil’s faction, when next we meet them.

Tigh’s revelation to Adama was shattering, and Adama’s flipping out was a perfectly natural result. Kudos to Edward James Olmos for a dramatic and heart-rending scene; one would totally believe that Adama had, in the span of mere minutes, been totally broken and reduced to primal rage, and then to tears. A lifetime worth of emotional pain exploded out of the Admiral in the aftermath of what was, for him, one final act of betrayal…and then by his best friend of three decades. Every act, every bad call, and every kid he sent out in a Viper to get killed haunted and hounded him, until he was drooling and sobbing into his son’s arms.

It was a painful scene to watch.

>> Old ways, new ways

I liked that Lee Adama raised an interesting point when talking with Number Three — D’Anna Biers. It was actually a point I’d raised before: throughout the mythology of the series, the idea that history is somehow cyclical has been the predominant philosophy. The way out, if any existed, was in my view to somehow break that cycle, to strike out in a new direction.

Lee Adama said this directly when proposing an alliance, and a peace, with the rebel Cylons.

What was interesting is how soundly this episode utterly rejected, in multiple ways, the old paradigm of eternal conflict between man and Cylon. D’Anna is operating on that paradigm, and Tory Foster (expressing her anti-human sentiments well) eggs her on in a violent, standoffish course when it comes to dealing with the humans. The humans react in kind, and the situation escalates almost to the point of a nuclear exchange between the two sides, which surely would have resulted in the near-anhiliation of humanity and the rebel Cylon faction (and, quite probably, the Final Five).

Into the midst of this, nothing less than God steps in to intercede. Baltar appeals to D’Anna, arguing passionately that the violent course of action failed on New Caprica and then again on the algae planet just prior to her being boxed — why would she think that this time, violence would achieve the desired ends? Meanwhile, Starbuck pleads with Lee Adama that events have been unfolding in an orchestrated, planned, intentional way that involves both humans and Cylons playing the agentic roles in God’s greater design. She all but begs Lee to realize that whatever the way forward must be, it must be in partnership with the Cylons, because everything unravels without their involvement as well. Both arguments — that of Gaius Baltar and that of Kara Thrace — are arguments from faith, and have resounding, and astounding, power.

There seems to be dawning, on everyone, a realization that the old way of doing things — hatred, distrust, eternal war — will only lead both human and Cylon closer and closer to their respective endings, which are already dangerously close enough.

>> The Other Cylons

Just a couple of remarks here. I agree with Dale Price’s remarks concerning Leoben. The Leoben Conoy Cylons began as tricksters and deceivers, like Loki with stubble and a slightly raspy voice. Since then, they have become genuinely devout prophets and servants, and are increasingly benevolent in both their desired ends and the means they use to achieve them.

I also observe that the Number Eights are still fickle, and readily swarm to the aid of D’Anna when she returns and launches her initially anti-human crusade for the Final Five.

>> Earth

One thing I noticed right off the bat was that the producers weren’t showing us everything about Earth.

Think about it for a minute, O Reader. At the end of Season 3, in the final wild, galactic-scale zooming shot, the Earth was very visibly our planet — North America was prominently featured:

And yet now, with the fleet having finally arrived at this fabled planet, the shots are murky or dark (and one notes that there’s a subtle visual clue in the dark portions of Earth suggesting it is abandoned — were it populated, lights of cities would surely be visible!), clouds obscure the continental landmasses, and in the ruins there are no easy visual indicators suggesting a familiar location to the viewer (some have tried to suggest that the one bridge-like ruin in the background might be the Brooklyn Bridge — I remain agnostic on this point).

So is this Earth? It would seem to be, especially since Felix Gaeta confirmed the presence of constellations. And yet, the producers are being deliberately vague; it is possible that the Fleet has gone astray, and somehow arrived at the wrong place in spite of all the signs. Is this Earth?

The issue of Laura Roslin actually…you know…surviving to see the surface of the planet is a key point here; if she really is the dying leader of the Pythian prophecy, she shouldn’t actually get to see Earth (think of Moses and the Promised Land). But here she is, standing right beside Bill Adama on the surface of the planet. Most intriguing…either this isn’t Earth, or else Roslin isn’t the dying leader the thought she was (though she is dying, to be sure).

I’m of two minds about the planet that everyone seems to think is Earth, myself.

On one hand, it could very well be Earth. As noted, everyone — even the non-believers — had built themselves up a myth of Earth as some kind of promised land. I don’t know why, but it honestly seemed as though the people of the Colonies thought they could just show up in orbit of their long-lost brothers and sisters in the Thirteenth Tribe, drop anchor (so to speak), land, and be welcomed with open arms into a lush, fruitful land overflowing with ambrosia and…uhm…Tauron sugar biscuits…?

Whatever…the point is that their expectations failed to take one thing into account: the Thirteenth Tribe was also composed of humans, flawed and imperfect, and prone to things like murder, dishonesty, and all the same sins that Bill Adama listed off in his speech during the Miniseries. Not more than a few hours prior to finding Earth, humanity and the Cylon rebels were no more than a handful of seconds away from using nuclear weapons to wipe each other out…can they really be surprised to find, then, that the Thirteenth Tribe may well have done the same?

On the other hand, maybe this isn’t Earth. Maybe it was just a way-station on the way to Earth, just another marker/pointer like the beacon, the algae planet, and the Ionian Nebula. It’s wholly possible that Kara Thrace’s mission as guide is not over, and that her Viper was just pointing out the next waypoint rather than the final destination. This seems unlikely given Gaeta’s confirmation of the constellations, however — it would be very nearly impossible to find another point in the galaxy in which all those stars appeared to align in just that way.

Whatever the reality, the discovery is going to cause real problems in the coming episodes. The alliance with the Cylons is fragile enough as it is, and this could potentially weaken it to the breaking point again. Or it could make the alliance stronger, as humanity and Cylon have now come face to face with the fullest implications of their mutually destructive ways.

It will almost surely trigger a wave of despair and suicides in the body of the Fleet proper. Riots too, most likely. For many of the Colonial survivors, Earth was not only their final hope, but their only hope — now that it’s gone, it will drive many of them to instability and violence, either against others or, more probably, against themselves.

>> The Last Cylon

If we pick apart D’Anna’s curt statement — that there are only four Cylons in the Fleet — we have to come to one of a handful of conclusions as to where the final Cylon might be. As I see it, the possibilities are thus:

1. Earth
2. The rebel basestar
3. Cavil’s basestar (or one of the other ships loyal to him)
4. Caprica
5. The final Cylon is not someone currently known to be living (e.g. a character currently listed as “dead”

Each of these theories is problematic, save one. Every other possibility save for the second has one major glaring flaw, and that is the scope of D’Anna’s knowledge. She has been boxed for (about) a year. In that time, she has received no knowledge of what has transpired between humanity and the Cylons, nor does she have the slightest reason to think, apart from the claims of those on the ship with her, that any other humans besides those that are on the rebel basestar are even alive.

The question that we must raise here concerns the scope of D’Anna’s knowledge of individual human beings. One of two things is possible:

1. Either she knew all of the Final Five on sight when she encountered them in her vision, or
2. She only knew four of them; the fifth was someone she’d never met before

The latter option is unlikely; D’Anna has always, always maintained that she knows all of the Five. So really, the former is the only option that makes sense, both from the perspective of the narrative thus far, and from the perspective of the quality of the series (introducing some new face just to out him or her as a Cylon would, I think, be a rather insulting cheap-shot by the series producers).

Assuming, then, that D’Anna knows who all of the Final Five are, her knowledge that only four of them are with the Fleet means one of three things:

1. D’Anna encountered the final Cylon on the rebel basestar, but did not acknowledge him or her
2. D’Anna has exterior knowledge of every human being currently in the Fleet, and knows that none of them is the final Cylon

That second option splits into two possibilities:

• Her knowledge stems from when she was briefly among the people of the Fleet as a journalist; she was somehow able to catalogue every last survivor and knows all of them on sight
• Her knowledge has a supernatural origin

Personally, I discount the two possibilities above as unlikely, which renders the second point above them equally invalid. I trust the Reader can see why I elect to do this.

Which leaves the first point — D’Anna encountered the final Cylon on the rebel basestar, but said nothing. This is actually a very reasonable conjecture — D’Anna’s silence can be explained away by the fact that the D’Anna Cylon model always has an agenda, and her silence could easily be useful in service of that agenda.

>> Predictions (mind the spoilers)

1. Invigorated by the fact that D’Anna specifically stated that only four of the Final Five were in the Fleet, I remain steadfast in my conviction that Helo — Karl Agathon — is the final Cylon.

The reason for this renewed conviction has to do with what Grace and I discussed about D’Anna’s meaning when she said that only four of the Final Five were in the Fleet. Grace agreed that the statement most likely meant that the fifth was on the basestar…but she wondered why D’Anna had not singled the fifth out in that case.

My reply was the last line of the analysis section pertaining to this topic, above: D’Anna has an agenda. Grace wondered what her agenda would be, and how her silence would benefit it. In thinking about this today, it seems to me that the answer might once again be little Hera Agathon. D’Anna was passionate in her search for the child, and could well be after Hera once again (for all we know). She could well be keeping silent on the matter of Helo’s Cylonity in order to achieve that end.

Which brings us back to the issue of the First Hybrid’s prophecy that the final Cylon would be revealed only in the “howl of terrible suffering”. Given Sharon Agathon’s passionate defence of Hera in the past — including her willingness to kill any Cylon who might even remotely threaten her child (even by way of mere proximity) — it stands to reason that if D’Anna harbours any designs on Hera, that fact will bring Sharon and D’Anna into direct conflict in the near future.

And perhaps neither Sharon nor D’Anna will survive the encounter. Perhaps Hera will be gravely endangered. And perhaps Helo will weather that terrible suffering only by discovering, and somehow coming to terms, with his Cylonity.

2. It is ultimately Roslin, in a tender, loving moment, who pulls Adama out of his abyss. More and more, she is affecting him, and it’s a beautiful, if subtle trend.

I think she’ll eventually lead him into the fold of faith; I don’t think he’ll end the series mired down in atheism.

3. As noted above (and as predicted), Tory is increasingly anti-human in her outlook and actions. When next we see Cavil (and we will see him soon, methinks), I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Tory joined up with his forces.

4. The basestar Hybrids seem to have their own agenda as well, and I’m thinking that Cavil’s people will find out from their own Hybrids that Earth has been discovered.

Update: Welcome, Dale Price readers!

Since the following no longer contains spoilers — at least as far as Grace is concerned, which is all I was really worried about — I am moving it up to today, so that I can officially say that I’m putting my chips into the pot as far as “final Cylon” speculation is concerned********.

I’ve been kicking around the idea that one of the Adamas — the admiral, Lee, or possibly even Zak (the dead brother) — is the final Cylon. I tend to agree with the analysis at Battlestar Wiki that the final member of the twelve Humanoid Cylons “would probably need to be a more prominent character than those of the Four.” In the Wiki’s analysis, that pretty much limits the field to Roslin, Admiral Adama, Lee, Baltar, and Starbuck.

Of course, I also happen to think that revealing some of the above as being Cylons would also be…anticlimactic, and in some cases just dumb. Take Roslin for example, and the way that Baltar is able to temporarily cure her cancer. It would seem to me that if the introduction of Cylon (or, to be completely specific, humano-Cylon) blood was enough to cure Roslin (albeit briefly), that pretty much cements the fact that she herself does not have anything Cylon about her physiology.

Likewise, revealing Baltar as a Cylon would, given the events in the middle of Season 3 (i.e. Baltar’s own uncertainty as to whether he is human or Cylon, and his desperate quest for answers in this regard), would be a let-down — really, it would seem contrived.

To be fair, I can see the merit of the argument that Baltar could be revealed as a sort of Cylon “Christ”, especially in regard to the prophecy of the First Hybrid in Razor:

The First Hybrid who says his children believe he is a god, makes a prediction about the final Cylon: “…the fifth is still is in shadow, drawn toward the light, hungering for redemption, that will only come in the howl of terrible suffering.” (Razor) This statement, while not concrete, may relate to Baltar. Of the major living characters, he most has begged for redemption, and is most in need of it, and it will indeed be painful for him. While Lee Adama seeks redemption for the Olympic Carrier this has been at best a minor theme in his character. Only Baltar begs for it, and only Baltar has said he would find redemption in learning he was a Cylon.

But equally, I just don’t think it’s Baltar. He strikes me more as a sort of “false prophet,” really — a misguided human demagogue who attempts to take on the mantle of an authority figure (first as a scientist, then as a politician, and now as a quasi-religious guru) in order to advance his own agenda (which, experience shows, typically involves the contents of his pants). I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Baltar’s “saviours” in the last episode of Season 3 were all beautiful women.

And let’s not even begin to discuss Starbuck. Yes, I know she died (or seemed to die) in Maelstrom. Yes, I know she came back in the last episode of the Season 3. Yes, I know she has a destiny. No, I still don’t think she’s a Cylon.

There’s also a logistical consideration that gets in the way of Starbuck’s being a Cylon. One of the things we know about the Final Five is that none of the other seven humanoid Cylons have any clue who the Final Five are. If Kara Thrace was really a Cylon, resurrected and sent back to the Colonials in a captured (and then nicely shined-up) Viper, it stands to reason that when she appeared to Lee, she must have come from one of the nearby Cylon ships (Vipers, as far as we know, do not have FTL jump drives), possibly a Resurrection Ship. It seems pretty incredible to suggest that the Cylons could have built a shipboard resurrection apparatus that included copies of the bodies of at least one of the Final Five and still remained “in the dark” about who the Five were. The only possible dodge that Ron Moore could use here, I think, is to say that the Colonials have somehow gotten very close to the Cylon homeworld, but I don’t think he’s going to go there.

And then there’s the fact that it would just be too bloody obvious if Starbuck were a Cylon. Her “resurrection” is significant, but it’s also a red herring as far as speculating who the final Cylon might be is concerned. Starbuck’s death was a rite of purification that she had to pass through before she could take on the task her destiny had appointed for her (ostensibly, to guide the Colonials to Earth, or possibly to their extinction).

And really, I think I’m even going to add at least two of the Adamas to that list as well. I know that Leoben said that “Adama is a Cylon”, but that was well before the writers had decided on who the final Cylon was (and, indeed, well before the search for the Final Five became a significant component of the show’s plot). I think it would be somewhat dramatically compelling if Admiral Adama did turn out to be a Cylon, but at the same time it would also be contrived given both his experiences during the First Cylon War and given the fact that his closest buddy from the war, Saul Tigh, has already been “outed.”

Lee being revealed as being a Cylon would be a bit more dramatic, and certainly would seem to meet two important criteria of the First Hybrid’s prophecy concerning the last Cylon (Lee has a ton of regrets and stabs of guilt — “hungering for redemption” — and has recently set himself on a course that utterly defies everything his father stands for — “still in shadow, drawn toward the light”). Then again, though, more than a few people seem to be guessing that Lee is a shoe-in for the final Cylon, and Ron Moore is (I think) too crafty to let folks off the hook that easily. Additionally, it would be tricky to explain how exactly Lee could be a Cylon, given that the Adama family has a pretty well-known history. Suggesting that perhaps the real baby Lee was switched at birth with a Cylon infant would be one possible explanation…but that raises more questions than it answers. Who carried out the switch? Was it a human or a Cylon? If it was a Cylon, how do the other Cylons not know about (at least) this one member of the Final Five? If it wasn’t a Cylon, what motive did that person have?

Too complicated, kind of contrived, and not the sort of road one wants to wander when one only has one season of episodes left to produce; the final season is a time for tying up loose threads, not picking new ones free of the fabric.

And of course, it would be remiss to not mention the fact that Ron Moore himself doesn’t want to reveal Admiral Adama, Lee Adama, or Laura Roslin as being the final Cylon.

Revealing Zak Adama as a Cylon would certainly be compelling, although I think Zak might be too obscure a character; everyone who knows the series knows that Admiral Adama had a son named Zak, and that said son died, but I doubt many BSG fans would know Zak on sight. The character that is the final Cylon needs to be someone who is instantly recognizable. Even having William Adama exclaim “Zak!” is too much time to waste during the revelation scene — the audience has to know instantly who it is.

Besides, how would Zak even get to the Colonial Fleet in the first place? He’d either have to be waiting for them on Earth (which prompts the question: how?) or he’d have to be on a Cylon basestar, awaiting his moment in the Sun (so to speak). The same logistical objection I have to Starbuck’s being a Cylon I can now raise here as well.

So there’s my lengthy explanation of who I don’t think will be the final Cylon, and especially where Zak Adama is concerned it’s as much a repudiation of my own prior theories as it is a rejection of any of the current theories that are out there. Who then, the Reader may yet be wondering, do I think the final Cylon actually is?

Remember what I said above, how the final Cylon would have to be someone at once instantly recognizable, and also someone whose revelation as a Cylon would be even more dramatic than learning that Chief Tyrol or Saul Tigh were Cylons? There’s only one person I can think of whose revelation would be that dramatic. Briefly, I think it’s Karl “Helo” Agathon. Yes: Helo. The same Helo who fathered a child with Sharon “Athena” Agathon.

And in fact, a goodly number of my reasons for thinking this center around little baby Hera, supposedly special as a humano-Cylon hybrid. If in fact her partly human, partly Cylon parentage makes Hera unique and pivotal to the plot of the series, then the revelation that Nicholas Tyrol is also a hybrid strips that away from her, which seems anti-climactic to me. It doesn’t really make all that much sense to build up Hera’s significance for the better part of an entire season, only to discard it second-hand with the revelation that she isn’t the only one with a Cylon for a parent after all.

Hera is special. But evidently, being a half-human, half-Cylon child is not so special anymore. So why is Hera special? Could she be a child of a Cylon/Cylon union?

“But wait!” the Reader may now be about to exclaim. “Cylons cannot reproduce with Cylons!” In my defence, I would like to point out that we don’t exactly know that Cylons can’t reproduce with each other. All we know is that Cylon experimentation in this area has thus far been fruitless. But fruitless doesn’t necessarily mean impossible.

In the analysis for “The Farm”, the writers at Battlestar Wiki note the following:

• Love serves as a theme in this episode. First, we find out how important love is for the Cylons: it is considered essential for Cylon procreation. In the first episode, Number Six asked Dr. Baltar several times if he loved her. Number Six also said that “God is love”. That was after she tried to conceive from him. Love is also the reason Sharon aids Helo and the reason Helo accepts her help. Also we hear that Starbuck was abused as a child. In the last episode she said that everyone seems to fight to get their old life back and she fights because it’s all she knows how to do. In this episode she seems to develop affections to Anders. Will Starbuck find ‘reason’ in love? Commander Adama tells his subordinates that he loves them. He asks Chief Tyrol if one could love a machine. Ultimately, Commander Adama weeps over Galactica-Sharon’s body because he loved her
• Number Six mentioned that “procreation is one of God’s commandments” in the first episode, “33″. This could mean that the Cylons are trying to procreate out of a feeling that they are sinning by not being able to have children on their own

If love is such a necessary component of Cylon procreation, it stands to reason that it makes rather a lot of sense why the “in the lab” results of procreation experiments amongst the Cylons all came up negative. When one is reduced to taking a clinical approach to such things, or when one acts out of fear that by not acting one is committing a sin, one’s actions are not motivated by love. Guilt? Yes, probably. Inquiry and curiosity? Most assuredly. But love? No, probably not.

Now, we know based on the events of the first season surrounding baby Hera’s conception that the “love” necessary in a sexual union does not have to be bi-directional. The Reader may recall that while Helo very genuinely loved Sharon Valeri, the Sharon that he impregnated was (at the time) working for the Cylons and was, we can assume, very likely acting not out of love, but out of a Cylon scheme. Is it possible that Helo, ignorant of his Cylon nature and ignorant of the difficulties of Cylon/Cylon procreation surrounding the issue of genuine love, acted out of genuine love and was able to impregnate Sharon?

“But wait!” the Reader may now be about to exclaim. “What about the odd fetal blood work? Doesn’t that cement the fact that Hera is part human and part Cylon?” And I will grant that it is true that Hera’s blood, as discovered by Dr. Cottle and Dr. Baltar during the debate over whether or not Sharon’s pregnancy should be forcibly terminated, has some unique properties. But it’s those very unique properties that make me doubt that she is in fact a half-human, half-Cylon child.

Baltar explained fairly plainly that human blood contains antigens, and that Hera’s blood contains no antigens at all. We can perhaps infer that she got this from her Cylon mother…but then, that doesn’t make sense, because one would think that Baltar’s Cylon detector would have been a lot less complicated if all Cylons had antigen-free blood. Moreover, wouldn’t Dr. Cottle have noticed something “damn odd” about Sharon’s blood work? And wouldn’t an injection of Sharon’s own blood have been sufficient to cure Roslin’s cancer in that case? I think we can safely conclude that Sharon’s blood is not as easily distinguished from human blood as in the example Baltar draws for Admiral Adama.

There is something special about Hera’s blood that her parents lacked. But how can that be? If neither her father nor her mother had antigen-free (or “damned odd,” to use Cottle’s term for it) blood, where did she get it from? What if the unique structure of Hera’s blood is analogous to, say, the way that Frank Herbert’s Bene Gesserit breeding program and the ultimate goal of the Kwisatz Haderach? What if, because of the union of two Cylons and the emergence of a pregnancy from that, a special category of being was created that did have truly antigen-free blood (among other differences)? What if that’s the real reason that the Cylons were attempting to breed? What if that’s the real reason Virtual Six, the image of Six that Baltar keeps seeing, called the child a “miracle from God?”

THe above becomes especially important when one considers, again, the presence of Nicholas Tyrol, the Chief’s son. It stands to reason that if Nicholas was the same manner of being as Hera (that is, half-human and half-Cylon) that his blood would have similar properties; Dr. Cottle was on New Caprica during the time that Cally was pregnant, and would almost certainly have given the pregnant woman a good standard of care, including fetal blood work. Failing that, he would have likely done as much once Nicholas was born, and realized either way that baby Nicholas also had something “damned odd” about his blood. That, in turn, would have cast suspicion on either Chief Tyrol or Cally as being possible Cylons. And yet, none of these plot threads came up in the third season of BSG.

That would seem to suggest, to me at least, that humano-Cylon children are not really all that special, nor does it suggest to me that there is anything particularly unique about their physiology. And I think don’t think Ron Moore overlooked, by accident, the fact that Tyrol’s being outed as a Cylon would have undercut Hera’s significance if she were in fact a human/Cylon hybrid. I think that Nicholas Tyrol is a vehicle for a subtle clue that Moore is giving to the audience: Hera is significant, but half-human, half-Cylon children aren’t.

And the only way I can think that he can make Hera significant is if she is neither a human child nor a humano-Cylon child; she can only be significant if she is the offspring of two Cylons: Sharon and Helo.

Which could explain Number Three’s surprised exclamation when she meets the Final Five and looks upon the face of one of them: “You… forgive me… I had no idea.” That’s not merely an excited outburst caused by having seen one of five forbidden faces — that’s genuine surprise at something she didn’t think was possible. We know that, as , the Threes came face to face with Helo once before. Could Helo have been the face that she saw?

At this point, we should ask what the nature of the Humanoid Cylons is, and what Ron Moore’s intent as a writer was when he created that plot idea:

The idea was that these models of Cylon were sort of developed out of their own study of us. The Cylons on some level looked at humanity and said ‘You know what? There’s really only twelve of you.’ If these are the twelve, and sort of if you look at them they each represent different archetypes of what humanity is.”

So what traits have we seen manifest in the Cylons presently known, and what trait(s) are still missing?

• In the Threes, we see a calculating duplicitousness, a manipulative behaviour that sees even fellow Cylons as tools to be used. There is also a religious streak to the Threes that draws its inspiration from experiences of the divine
• In the Fives (the Aaron Doral model), we militant fanaticism, and a willingness to resort to anything, from deliberately sowing confusion to outright suicide bombing, “for the cause.”
• In the Sixes, we see two almost competing ideas. On one hand, this model seems to rely very heavily on sex and seduction to advance its goals, but on the other hand it is very intensely religious about them, and a real focus on the concept of revelation and personal communication with God’s will
• In the Eights we see the soldier and spy, the sabotage expert and the “field operative.” These models are also regarded as defective for their ability to love selflessly. All business, these ones…but with one key weak spot. She’s the woman who could have everything and be anything…and who would let it all go for love
• In Simon, we see an intellectual and possibly a scholar
• In Leoben, we see the mystic and the prophet, and also the model most obsessed with the idea of procreation. At Batttlestar Wiki, he is likened to the serpent in Genesis, tempting with knowledge and half-truths and then sitting back and enjoying the show as the chaos that comes with having that knowledge takes its toll on humanity
• In Cavil, we have the single-minded, sardonic, atheistic “strongman.”
• In Tigh, we have the flawed man, the hard drinker and the coward
• In Tyrol, we have the “everyman” — proud but competent, agnostic but also inexorably tethered to the faith of his past
• In Anders, we have the jock, but underneath that exterior there’s a man who both hates what fates have befallen him and a man who realizes when a job needs to be done, and who jumps at the chance to do it
• And in Tory Foster, we have the consummate career girl; all business, but coming apart at the seams and not above a little casual hookup. At the same time, she too is willing to cheat and manipulate, cajole and barter, in order to achieve her goals

When I look at that list (and yes, some of it is just speculation on my part), what I notice as being missing is someone who is genuinely humble, the “good man” who tries, at every turn, to do the right thing. Helo’s sense of right and wrong is second to none in the series, even if his standing up for what is right poses, to him,, a genuine risk.

To enumerate just briefly:

• He gives up his seat so that Baltar can escape the colonies
• He goes out of his way to make Sharon feel at ease when they find the bomb shelter in the café
• He can’t bring himself to abandon Sharon after it appears that she has been captured by the Cylons
• He refuses to let Starbuck kill Sharon when the former returns to Caprica to retrieve the Arrow of Apollo. He later defends Sharon from Lee Adama and President Roslin as well
• During the trek to the Tomb of Athena, Helo cares for Sharon and is obviously in love with her. When she asks for his trust, he gives it, despite his reservations
• When the crew of Galactica ostracizes him, Helo keeps to himself quietly, sharing his time only with Starbuck and spending every free moment visiting Sharon in the ship’s brig. He nevertheless does not give up hope, even going so far as to suggest the use of carbon composite for the hull of the stealth ship that Chief Tyrol’s deck crew builds
• He rushes to intervene when Sharon is attacked and nearly raped
• When Roslin and Dr. Cottle stage their duplicitous exchange of Hera for a dead baby, Helo stands by his wife and attempts to console her, despite the obvious grief he himself feels
• He steps into the XO’s role when Adama has to send Tigh away
• When Adama and Roslin decide to attac