Time Immortal

It’s all over but leadership race(s).

The final total gave the Conservative Party of Canada a tough-nut-to-crack minority with 143 seats, nearly double what the Liberal Party of Canada managed to win (only a mere 77 seats). Not quite the result my wife and I were hoping for, but not bad either. If nothing else, it would seem to be a vote of confidence on the part of the Canadian people — confidence in the Conservative Party’s plan for the country, in the direction they’ve led it in, and in the man at the helm. That’s the lowest level of popular support that the Liberals have had since…uhm…the formation of Canada, actually. That’s not something that Stephane Dion can survive, I would suspect…although it would seem that Dion expects to stay on as party leader.

I have to admit: I’m kind of hoping that Dion stays on in the role, or at least attempts to. Such a move would fracture the Liberals, probably irreparably. But I really can’t see him surviving long in the post: his party just lost 26 seats, mostly to Jack Layton’s NDP, and I’m pretty sure that the knives are being sharpened. There will be a leadership race soon enough, and the Liberals will put someone more…well…competent at the helm. I hate to frame it in such terms, but there it is: Stephane Dion was not an effective leader for his party, and it has cost them dearly. It could well be time for Michael Ignatieff to finally take over the party leadership. Then again, Justin Trudeau just got himself elected, and I could see Pierre’s boy throwing his name in the hat in a leadership race. Jay Currie has his money on Bob Rae.

Please to cringe now, good Reader.

Of course, the Liberal coffers are basically empty at the moment. This puts a very interesting spin on things, both in terms of the future prospects of the party itself, and on the tone that the Harper minority will set when Parliament resumes. It was the case, with this last election, that the Liberals weren’t well-equipped financially to fight an election. They’re in an even worse position now, and so will have to think very carefully about undertaking any voting effort which would see the Conservative government defeated on a confidence motion. The last thing they can afford is another election, no matter how badly they might want another shot at power.

I very much doubt they even have the money to hold a leadership race at present. That presents its own problems, given that Dion simply cannot stay on as leader if the party is to survive and recover. So what to do? We saw the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada die a couple of elections ago — could we be seeing the end of the Liberals as well?

That’s certainly one possibility — one hope, I might even say. As far as this election goes, the bleak future of the Liberals is one of the more interesting outcomes. As Jay Currie notes, they’ve basically been reduced to being the Toronto Party — that’s never a good sign.

There were a few notable upsets, too. Local to Edmonton, Rahim Jaffer lost the Strathcona riding to NDP candidate Linda Duncan, which came as something of a surprise (both CTV and the CBC had called that riding in Jaffer’s favour as of the time I went to bed). The big surprise for me was Garth Turner losing his seat — that was unexpected, but nice to see all the same. Karma’s a bitch.

(More than a few people were happy about Garth’s defeat. I also note that others observed, as I did, that the Elections Canada website went down — hard — yesterday evening.)

I’m not at all impressed with the fact that the NDP made some gains, although I suppose it was inevitable that it would happen. As Grace remarked to me last night, progressive Liberal voters wanting to flee from Green Shift and Dion were a shoe-in for the Dippers. That such people don’t have the best interests of Canada at heart is a side discussion. Still, it’s consoling to remember that Jack Layton’s people are still the fourth-place party in Canada; the Bloc Quebecois picked up more seats than them. I doubt that there will be a leadership race in the NDP as a result of this election…but one can always hope, can’t one?

Now, I mentioned that the stronger Conservative majority was a vote of confidence in the Conservative Party’s leadership and performance thus far, and I definitely stand by that opinion. At the same time, though, it should be noted that it was also a vote in favour of the status quo. It’s not likely that anything will change in the wake of the latest Harper victory, at least not in terms of shoring up the strength of the human right to freedom of expression. Section 13 of the CHRA will likely remain “on the books,” although there is some hope that the Young Offenders Act will be made more harsh.

Now, the only question that remains is how long this latest government will stand. A year? Two years? Longer? It would be strange to think that any minority government would survive the full legal duration of a term in office, but I suppose it’s possible. With the Liberals all but crippled — financially and at a leadership level — the Conservatives will have what amounts to an effective majority, though not an actual numeric one. That’s a condition that is not likely to clear in any expedient manner, either. I’m thinking it’ll be at least 30 months until the next election, if not 36.

Update: Welcome, Steynians!